Friday, March 13, 2009

Filling Out Your Bracket: The Elite Eight

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, 26 out of 36 (72 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight. 15 out of those 26 (58 percent), or 42 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Final Four.

No. 1 seeds have played No. 2 seeds 11 times in the Elite Eight, and they have won only five (45 percent) of those games. No. 1 seeds have played No. 3 seeds eight times, winning only four (50 percent). They have played five games combined in the Elite Eight against No. 6, No. 7, and No. 10 seeds and have won all of them. They have also played against a No. 11 seed twice, winning once and losing once.

Overall in Sweet Elite Eight games, No. 1 seeds have an average margin of victory of 1.77 points per game in their favor. Against only No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, this average margin is still in their advantage slightly at 0.58 points per game.

No. 2 Seeds

No. 2 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight 15 times out of a possible 36 (42 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Final Four eight (53 percent) of those times. This equates to 22 percent of the original 36 No. 2 seeds since 2000 making the Final Four.

No. 2 seeds have played No. 1 seeds 11 times, and also a No. 4 seed, No. 5 seed, No. 8 seed, and a No. 12 seed once each. Interestingly, the No. 2 seeds have fared just as well in Elite games against No. 1 seeds (winning 55 percent of the time) as they have against the higher seeds combined (winning 50 percent of the time).

Overall, No. 2 seeds have had an average margin of victory of 2.4 points per game in their favor in Elite Eight games.

Overall

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Sweet Sixteen games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

ACC: 8-1 (89 percent)
Big Ten: 7-4 (64 percent)
SEC: 4-3 (57 percent)
Big East: 5-5 (50 percent)
Big 12: 6-8 (43 percent)
Pac-10: 4-6 (40 percent)
Other: 2-9 (18 percent)

The other conferences, besides power conferences, that have played in the Elite Eight since 2000 are the Atlantic Ten, Conference USA, MAC, CAA, and Southern Conference.

Summary

  • No. 1 seeds have no advantage over No. 2 or No. 3 seeds in Elite Eight games, but it is much more difficult for a No. 2 or No. 3 seed to reach the Elite Eight than for a No. 1 seed
  • No. 2 seeds have won about half of their Elite Eight games, and have actually done better when they play a No. 1 seed than when they play a higher seed
  • The ACC has won eight of nine Elite Eight games since 2000
  • The Big 12 and Pac 10 have relatively poor records in the Elite Eight
  • Non-power conferences have had very little success in Elite Eight games since 2000

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