Filling Out Your Bracket: The Final Four

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, there have been 13 games in the Final Four featuring a No. 1 seed against a non-No. 1 seed. No. 1 seeds have won an impressive 10 (77 percent) of those games. The average margin of victory in these games was the No. 1 seed winning by 6.46 points per game. Of the three losses a No. 1 seed experienced in the Final Four against a higher-seeded team, two came against a No. 2 seed and one came against a No. 3 seed. No. 1 seeds won five out of five games against teams seeded No. 4 or higher in the Final Four.

No. 2 Seeds

There have been 12 Final Four games featuring a No. 2 seed since 2000 – seven that played as the favored seed and five that played as the higher seed. No. 2 seeds won only three of the seven (43 percent) against higher seeds, and two of the five (40 percent) against No. 1 seeds. In all Final Four games involving a No. 2 seed, the average margin of victory has been for the No. 2 seed to win by 0.75 points per game.

Same Seeds

There have been five games in the NCAA Tournament this decade that have matched even seeds against each other. All of these games have had two No. 1 seeds playing, and three of them occurred in last year’s tournament (2008). The average margin of victory for the winning team is actually 10.8 points per game in these five games. The closest game of the five was a five point win by North Carolina over Illinois in the 2005 National Championship.

Conferences

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Final Four games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

SEC: 5-2 (71 percent)
ACC: 7-5 (58 percent)
Big East: 4-3 (57 percent)
Big Ten: 5-6 (45 percent)
Conference USA: 1-1 (50 percent)
Big 12: 3-5 (38 percent)
Pac-10: 2-4 (33 percent)
Colonial: 0-1 (0 percent)

Even though the SEC has the best record as a conference, the only team with any Final Four victories in the SEC is Florida. Florida has won the national championship twice and runner-up once since 2000. Similarly, Memphis is the only representative for Conference USA and George Mason is the only representative for the Colonial Athletic Association.

Summary

• No. 1 seeds have had tremendous success against non-No. 1 seeds in the Final Four
• No. 2 seeds have struggled in Final Four games, even when they are the favored seed
• Games featuring teams of the same seed have not turned out to be very close games
• The Pac-10 and Big 12 conferences have been the worst of the power conferences in Final Four games

Filling Out Your Bracket: The Elite Eight

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, 26 out of 36 (72 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight. 15 out of those 26 (58 percent), or 42 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Final Four.

No. 1 seeds have played No. 2 seeds 11 times in the Elite Eight, and they have won only five (45 percent) of those games. No. 1 seeds have played No. 3 seeds eight times, winning only four (50 percent). They have played five games combined in the Elite Eight against No. 6, No. 7, and No. 10 seeds and have won all of them. They have also played against a No. 11 seed twice, winning once and losing once.

Overall in Sweet Elite Eight games, No. 1 seeds have an average margin of victory of 1.77 points per game in their favor. Against only No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, this average margin is still in their advantage slightly at 0.58 points per game.

No. 2 Seeds

No. 2 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight 15 times out of a possible 36 (42 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Final Four eight (53 percent) of those times. This equates to 22 percent of the original 36 No. 2 seeds since 2000 making the Final Four.

No. 2 seeds have played No. 1 seeds 11 times, and also a No. 4 seed, No. 5 seed, No. 8 seed, and a No. 12 seed once each. Interestingly, the No. 2 seeds have fared just as well in Elite games against No. 1 seeds (winning 55 percent of the time) as they have against the higher seeds combined (winning 50 percent of the time).

Overall, No. 2 seeds have had an average margin of victory of 2.4 points per game in their favor in Elite Eight games.

Overall

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Sweet Sixteen games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

ACC: 8-1 (89 percent)
Big Ten: 7-4 (64 percent)
SEC: 4-3 (57 percent)
Big East: 5-5 (50 percent)
Big 12: 6-8 (43 percent)
Pac-10: 4-6 (40 percent)
Other: 2-9 (18 percent)

The other conferences, besides power conferences, that have played in the Elite Eight since 2000 are the Atlantic Ten, Conference USA, MAC, CAA, and Southern Conference.

Summary

• No. 1 seeds have no advantage over No. 2 or No. 3 seeds in Elite Eight games, but it is much more difficult for a No. 2 or No. 3 seed to reach the Elite Eight than for a No. 1 seed
• No. 2 seeds have won about half of their Elite Eight games, and have actually done better when they play a No. 1 seed than when they play a higher seed
• The ACC has won eight of nine Elite Eight games since 2000
• The Big 12 and Pac 10 have relatively poor records in the Elite Eight
• Non-power conferences have had very little success in Elite Eight games since 2000

The Sweet Sixteen

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, 31 out of 36 (86 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. 26 out of those 31 (84 percent), or 72 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Elite Eight.

No. 1 seeds have played No. 4 seeds 11 times, No. 5 seeds 14 times, No. 12 seeds 5 times, and played a No. 13 seed once in the Sweet Sixteen. They have won nine (82 percent) times against No. 4 seeds, 11 (79%) times against No. 5 seeds, and have won all six times in which they faced a No. 12 or No. 13 seed.

Overall in Sweet Sixteen games, No. 1 seeds have an average margin of victory of 7.16 points per game in their favor. Against only No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, this average margin is still in their advantage at 5.64 points per game.

No. 2 Seeds

No. 2 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen 19 times out of a possible 36 (53 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Elite Eight 15 (79 percent) of those times. This equates to 42 percent of the original 36 No. 2 seeds since 2000 making the Elite Eight.

No. 2 seeds have played No. 3 seeds 11 times, No. 6 seeds seven times, and a No. 11 seed one in the Sweet Sixteen. They have won eight (73 percent) times against No. 3 seeds, six (86%) times against No. 6 seeds, and won their only game against a No. 11 seed.

Overall, No. 2 seeds have had an average margin of victory of 6.53 points per game in their favor in Sweet Sixteen games. Against No. 3 seeds they win by 5.09 points per game on average, and against No. 6 seeds they win by 8.00 points per game.

No. 3 and No. 6 Seeds

There has been 15 times since 2000 that a No. 3 or No. 6 seed has been the lower seed in a Sweet Sixteen game, meaning that the No. 2 seed was upset in the first or second round in their side of the bracket. The No. 3 or No. 6 seed has won nine of these 15 (60 percent) games. No. 3 seeds have won seven of ten (70%) games against a higher seed in the Sweet Sixteen, while No. 6 seeds have only won two of their five (40%).

In addition, a No. 3 or No. 6 seed has been the higher seed in a Sweet Sixteen game 18 times since 2000. Since they were the higher seed, this means they had to be playing a No. 2 seed. The No. 3 or No. 6 seed has won four of these 18 (22 percent) games. No. 3 seeds have won three of 11 (27%) games against No. 2 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, while No. 6 seeds have won only one of their seven (14 percent).

No. 4 and No. 5 Seeds

There has been four times since 2000 that a No. 4 or No. 5 seed has been the lower seed in a Sweet Sixteen game, meaning that the No. 1 seed was upset in the second round in their side of the bracket. The No. 4 or No. 5 seed actually lost three of these four games. The only win came against a No. 9 seed, whereas all of the three losses came against No. 8 seeds.

In addition, a No. 4 or No. 5 seed has been the higher seed (played a No. 1 seed) in a Sweet Sixteen game 25 times since 2000. The No. 4 or No. 5 seed has won only five (20 percent) of these. No. 4 seeds have won two of 11 (18 percent) games against No. 1 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, while No. 5 seeds have won three of their 14 (21 percent).

Overall

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Sweet Sixteen games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

Big 12: 13-5 (72 percent)
Big Ten: 12-7 (63 percent)
Pac 10: 10-9 (53 percent)
ACC: 9-10 (47 percent)
SEC: 7-10 (41 percent)
Big East: 10-16 (38 percent)
Mid-Majors: 10-14 (42 percent)
Small Conf.: 1-1 (50 percent)

Here the Mid-Major conferences include the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, WCC, CAA, Conference USA, Horizon League, MAC, WAC, and Mountain West. Small conferences include the Sun Belt and Southern Conference.

Note that there were a few Mid-Major conferences with very good Sweet Sixteen records (Atlantic Ten, Conference USA), and also a few with very bad records (Missouri Valley, Horizon, Mountain West).

Summary

• On average, three of the four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight each year

• If a No. 7, 8, 9, or 10 seed is able to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, then they also have a very good chance of advancing to the Elite Eight

• No. 3, 4, 5, and 6 seeds have reached the Elite Eight at a surprisingly low rate

• The Big 12 and Big Ten have fared very well in Sweet Sixteen games, while the SEC and Big East have fared poorly

Other Second Round Games

I previously considered second round match-ups featuring No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. In this entry I consider all other second round NCAA Tournament games. If all goes well for the top seeds in the first round, this would be the No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs No. 5 match-ups. However, upsets in this part of the bracket are very prevalent.

No. 3 Seeds

Since 2000, 34 out of 36 (94 percent) No. 3 seeds have advanced to the second round. 21 out of those 34 (62 percent), or 58 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Sweet Sixteen. Out of the 34 second round games, 22 have come against No. 6 seeds. No. 3 seeds have won only 12/22 (55 percent) of these games, suggesting that No. 3 and No. 6 seeds are fairly even. The other 12 second round games have come against No. 11 seeds, where No. 3 seeds won nine (75 percent) times.

Overall in second round games, No. 3 seeds have an average margin of victory of 3.59 points per game in their favor. Against No. 6 seeds, this average margin is a mere 0.41 points per game in their favor, and is in their advantage by 9.42 points per game against No. 11 seeds.

No. 4 Seeds

No. 4 seeds have advanced to the second round 28 times out of a possible 36 (78 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen 14 of those 28 (50 percent) times. This equates to 39 percent of the original 36 No. 4 seeds since 2000. Of their 28 second round games, 18 have come against No. 5 seeds. No. 4 seeds have won only seven (39 percent) of these games. The percentage is most likely so far below half because of a relatively low sample size, but nonetheless the No. 4 seeds appear to have no distinct advantage against No. 5 seeds. The other 10 second round games were against No. 12 seeds, where No. 4 seeds won seven (70 percent) of those games.

Overall, No. 4 seeds have had an average margin of victory of just 0.64 points per game in their favor in second round games. Against No. 5 seeds they lose by 0.28 points per game on average, and against No. 12 seeds they win by 2.3 points per game.

No. 5 Seeds

No. 5 seeds have made the second round of the NCAA Tournament 23 times out of a possible 36 (64 percent) since 2000. They were able to advance to the Sweet Sixteen 15 of those 23 times (65 percent), meaning 42 percent of the original No. 5 seeds were able to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Notice that this is higher than the 39 percent of No. 4 seeds that were able to make it that far. Of the 23 second round games, 18 came against No. 4 seeds, where the No. 5 seeds won 11 (61 percent) games. The other five games were all against No. 13 seeds, where No. 5 seeds won four (80 percent) games.

No. 5 Seeds have an average margin of victory in their second round games of 1.87 points per game in their favor. On average against No. 4 seeds they win by 0.28 points per game on average, and against No. 13 seeds they win by 7.6 points per game.

No. 6 Seeds

Since 2000, No. 6 seeds have reached the second round 24 of a possible 36 (67 percent) times. Of those 24 tries, No. 6 seeds were able to advance further to the Sweet Sixteen 12 (58 percent) times. This means that 33 percent of all No. 6 seeds since 2000 have reached the Sweet Sixteen. Of the 24 second round games featuring No. 6 seeds, 22 of them came against No. 3 seeds. No. 6 seeds won 10 (45 percent) of those games, and also won both of their games against No. 14 seeds in the second round.

No. 6 seeds have an average margin of victory of winning by 0.54 points per game in second round games. In games against No. 3 seeds, they have lost by 0.41 points per game, and they have won by 11 points per game against No. 14 seeds.

Overall

In other articles I have considered conference records by low seed and high seed. However, since the match-ups seem to be much more even in this group, I will consider cumulative conference records. Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in these second round games (wins, losses, winning percentage):

Pac-10: 10-3 (77 percent)
SEC: 10-5 (67 percent)
Big East: 15-10 (60 percent)
Big Ten: 9-8 (53 percent)
Big 12: 8-9 (47 percent)
ACC: 7-12 (37 percent)
Mid-Majors: 12-16 (43 percent)
Small Conf.: 1-9 (10 percent)

Here the Mid-Major conferences include the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, WCC, CAA, Conference USA, Horizon League, MAC, and Mountain West. Small conferences include the Sun Belt, America East, Big Sky, Big West, MAAC, Patriot, Southland, and Big South.

Note that the lone victory in these games for a small conference team was last year when Western Kentucky defeated San Diego. Western Kentucky was actually the favored team in this instance as a No. 12 seed playing a No. 13 seed.

Summary

• No. 4 and No. 5 seeds have essentially equal chances at reaching the Sweet Sixteen
• No. 3 and No. 6 seeds are fairly evenly matched, but No. 3 seeds have a much higher chance of winning their first round game, giving them a better chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen
• The Pac 10 conference has fared exceptionally well in these second round games, while the ACC has done surprisingly poorly
• Small Conference teams have done extremely poorly in these match-ups