Memphis Basketball Looks to Bounce Back with Star Recruit

The collapse of the Memphis Tigers at the end of regulation and overtime in last year’s National Championship game will not soon be forgotten. The Tigers missed four out of five free throws at the end of the game and surrendered a miraculous, buzzer-beater three-pointer from Kansas’ Russell Robinson that sent the game to overtime.

Perhaps worse than the emotional letdown of the championship game, Memphis also lost their two best players to the NBA draft. Leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts and freshman sensation point guard Derrick Rose both will no longer be able to play with the team this season. Combined, these two players accounted for an average of 33 points per game last season.

While Memphis does have a plethora of role players returning from last year’s team that will look to make a larger impact, the Tigers look with urgency to their incoming recruiting class to provide immediate results. The highlight of that recruiting class is undoubtedly Tyreke Evans.

Tyreke Evans is the No. 6 rated recruit for this year’s college basketball freshman class according to Rivals.com. At American Christian High School in Aston, Pennsylvania, Evans excelled at the point guard position, earning the No. 3 point guard rating from Rivals.com.

However, Memphis will not be giving Evans the direct burden of filling in the shoes of this year’s No.1 NBA draft pick, Derrick Rose. The team has announced the veteran Willie Kemp will take over as point guard, and Tyreke will shift to shooting guard. In many ways though, Evans is still expected to replace Rose.

Evans and Rose have many similarities, but it is mostly Evans’ hype coming out of high school that will draw him comparisons to the former freshman phenom.

While Evans is ranked as the No. 6 recruit in his class, Derrick Rose was the No. 3 rated recruit in the freshman class of 2007. Rose was also the No. 1 rated point guard, while Evans ranks No. 3.

Both Evans and Rose have very good size for the guard position. Evans is 6’5 while Rose is slightly shorter at 6’4.

They both also come from very similar backgrounds. Tyreke Evans is from Chester, PA, a tough area in Philadelphia, while Derrick Rose is from the south side of Chicago.

When his incredible basketball talent began to show, Rose’s mother made sure that Derrick’s older brother looked out for him to keep him safe and out of trouble during High School. Tyreke Evans had a very similar situation, as his older brothers protected him and even sent him to a private high school away from the streets of Philly.

In his senior year of high school, Evans averaged 29 points per game. Rose averaged fewer points at 25.2 per game in his senior season, but did lead his team to their second straight state title.

Both stars have the rare ability to make the game look very easy. They both are extremely quick and very talented at driving the ball to the basket and finishing strong.

There is one more thing that both Rose and Evans have in common that is extremely important. Derrick Rose only played one year at Memphis before leaving for the NBA, and nobody would be surprised if Tyreke Evans did the exact same thing.

Evans has already been projected to be the No. 10 overall pick and next year’s draft, and has said he hopes that his time on Memphis helps to prepare him for the NBA.

Ever since the rule was set that players must be one year removed from High School to be eligible for the NBA, the one-and-done college basketball player has become extremely common. In 2006, six of the top seven ranked players (again according to Rivals.com) out of high school left for the NBA after their freshman season. Last year, nine of the top ten ranked players made the same jump to the NBA after just one year in college.

Being the No. 6 rated recruit for this year’s class, if the trend continues then the chances of Tyreke Evans bolting for the NBA after one year at Memphis are very high.

In fact, it is fairly simple to create a logistic regression statistical model to predict the probability of Evans going one-and-done. Thus, I used data from the last two seasons’ freshman classes to do just that. I used the top 30 ranked recruits for the freshman class of 2006 and the top 30 ranked recruits from last year.

I found a model based solely off of the rankings from Rivals.com to be an extremely good predictor for whether or not the player goes to the NBA after one season. Based off of this model, which only takes into account his No. 6 ranking, Tyreke Evans is given a 77.4% chance of turning professional after this season.

Additionally, I came up with another model that includes a measure for success in a player’s first year of college. I chose to quantify this success in terms of points scored per game. Based off of this model, the chance of Evans going to the NBA after his freshman year depends on how well he does this season. To give an idea, if Evans averages 10 points per game this season, his probability of going to the NBA then drops to 52%. If Evans averages 20 points per game, then his probability of going to the NBA goes up to 92.5%.

It should be noted that there is not a lot of data available to use for this study since the rule has only been in place for two years. The probabilities mentioned assume that the trends from the previous two years will hold this season as well.

It should also be noted that when I say leaving for the NBA after one season, I mean that a player fails to return to his college team the next season for the main reason of playing in the NBA. Players that “tested the waters” in the NBA and then returned to their college teams were not considered to be one-and-done. Also, players that left their teams for reasons other than the NBA (academics, etc.) were not considered to be one-and-done either.

Clearly, Memphis fans should be more immediately concerned about the productivity from Evans for this season rather than if he will be around beyond that, but it certainly makes it more difficult for Memphis (or any other team) to maintain a dominant program if its star players only play for one season.

Tyreke Evans gives the Memphis program a lot to be excited about for this season, even if he does not stay a Tiger beyond that. For Memphis to have another chance at a national title this season, Evans will have to live up to his hype. Just like Derrick Rose before him.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part XI

This is the eleventh and final part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. This is a summary of the previous ten articles, and allows you to see the rankings all in one spot. However, it does not have the explanation and detail of the earlier articles.

My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Conferences:

Here are conferences, in order of rank, along with their average point totals:

1. ACC – 435.00
2. Big Ten – 399.91
3. Big East – 366.81
4. SEC – 338.42
5. Big 12 – 321.67
6. Pac 10 – 280.20
7. Atlantic 10 – 148.71
8. Mountain West – 148.33
9. Conference USA – 106.83
10. West Cost Conference – 72.50
11. Missouri Valley – 68.60
12. Horizon – 54.00
13. WAC – 45.11
14. MAC – 38.00
15. Sun Belt – 33.54
16. CAA – 30.17
17. Patriot League – 24.63
T-18. MAAC – 18.00
T-18. Ivy League – 18.00
20. Southern – 16.36
21. Big Sky – 14.44
22. Big West – 13.33
23. Ohio Valley – 10.18
24. MEAC – 9.73
25. Big South – 7.63
26. SWAC – 7.50
27. America East – 5.78
28. Southland – 5.33
29. Atlantic Sun – 4.67
30. Northeast – 3.64
31. Summit – 1.20
32. Independents – 0.00

Top 50 Teams:

Here are the top 50 teams, listed in order with cumulative point totals over the past 24 seasons (rank, team, ESPN rank, point total)

1. Duke (1) – 1,135
2. North Carolina (3) – 1,106
3. Kansas (2) – 1,076
4. Kentucky (4) – 978
5. Arizona (5) – 749
6. UCLA (7) – 731
7. Connecticut (6) – 724
8. Syracuse (9) – 713
9. Georgetown (T-10) – 690
10. Michigan State (T-10) – 655
11. Louisville (T-14) – 637
12. Texas (18) – 632
13. Illinois (23) – 616
14. Maryland (28) – 601
15. Indiana (13) – 587
16. Oklahoma (12) – 576
17. Arkansas (T-14) – 563
18. Purdue (29) – 546
19. Temple (20) – 538
20. Oklahoma State (32) – 506
21. Cincinnati (19) – 504
22. Florida (21) – 500
23. Alabama (T-35) – 484
24. Michigan (22) – 475
25. Stanford (25) – 466
26. Memphis (T-14) – 460
27. UNLV (8) – 453
28. Utah (24) – 448
29. Georgia Tech (33) – 446
30. Ohio State (27) – 440
31. Villanova (T-30) – 425
32. Xavier (17) – 418
33. Wake Forest (T-37) – 416
34. Iowa (49) – 404
T-35. Seton Hall (51) – 378
T-35. Pittsburgh (T-43) – 378
T-37. Wisconsin (T-43) – 364
T-37. Boston College (T-70) – 364
39. North Carolina State (52) – 358
40. St. John’s (T-35) – 356
41. Gonzaga (26) – 318
42. Missouri (T-37) – 316
43. LSU (T-40) – 314
44. Auburn (T-90) – 310
45. Iowa State (T-57) – 304
46. Tulsa (39) – 302
T-47. Virginia (T-70) – 278
T-47. Notre Dame (T-86) – 278
49. Mississippi State (T-86) – 252
50. West Virginia (67) – 248

Summary:

If you compare my rankings to the ESPN rankings, I think it is quite clear that my simplistic scoring method was very comparable to the more complicated ESPN method. In fact, I believe my scoring system has corrected for the questionable areas in the ESPN rankings.

The weaker teams that were ranked highly in ESPN’s rankings because of playing against weaker competition are not ranked as highly in my version. As a result, the above average teams in the major conferences are all ranked more favorably in my rankings because they were pushed behind small conference teams in ESPN’s version.

Looking at the team rankings, most of the large rank differences come from the teams from weaker conferences (UNLV, Gonzaga, Tulsa, etc.) and from the more average teams in major conferences (Auburn, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Boston College, etc.).

Please look back to my previous articles in this series for more detail on the teams and conferences.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part X

This is the tenth and second to last part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil the top conferences and top overall teams in the rankings. The eleventh and final part in the series will be released tomorrow, and will be a brief summary and consolidation of my previous articles.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

3) Big East – Average Point Total: 366.81

1) Connecticut – 724 (7, 6)
2) Syracuse – 713 (8, 9)
3) Georgetown – 690 (9, T-10)
4) Louisville – 637 (11, T-14)
5) Cincinnati – 504 (21, 19)
6) Villanova – 425 (31, T-30)
T-7) Seton Hall – 378 (T-35, 51)
T-7) Pittsburgh – 378 (T-35, T-43)
9) St. John’s – 356 (40, T-35)
10) Notre Dame – 278 (T-47, T-86)
11) West Virginia – 248 (50, 67)
12) Depaul – 210 (T-54, 95)
13) Marquette – 190 (58, T-61)
14) Providence – 130 (T-73, T-111)
T-15) South Florida – 4 (T-191, T-229)
T-15) Rutgers – 4 (T-191, T-225)


The Big East, with the help of its recently added teams, is the third ranked conference in the last 24 seasons. The Big East boasts eleven top 50 programs, which is by far the most of any conference (the Big East also has more teams than most conferences).

The race for the top spot in the conference was very close, as the top four teams were all within ranked overall within five spots of each other. UConn grabbed the top spot with the seventh overall rank, Syracuse was second in the Big East and eighth overall, Georgetown came next at ninth overall, and Louisville finished fourth in the Big East but eleventh overall.

The Big East has earned five national championships since 1985. Villanova has one (1985), Louisville has one (1986), Syracuse has one (2003), and Connecticut has two (1999 and 2004).

Nine teams in the Big East have reached at least the Final Four in the last 24 seasons (UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Marquette).

The main visible negative for this conference is the bottom teams. Both South Florida and Rutgers have been very poor basketball programs in this time period. Neither has a tournament victory, and they have only two tournament appearances each.

2) Big 10 – Average Point Total: 399.91

1) Michigan State – 655 (10, T-10)
2) Illinois – 616 (13, 23)
3) Indiana – 587 (15, 13)
4) Purdue – 546 (18, 29)
5) Michigan – 475 (24, 22)
6) Ohio State – 440 (30, 27)
7) Iowa – 404 (34, 49)
8) Wisconsin – 364 (T-37, T-43)
9) Minnesota – 226 (52, 68)
10) Penn State – 86 (T-96, T-185)
11) Northwestern – 0 (T-273, T-290)

The Big East may have the highest number of teams in the top 50, but the Big Ten has the highest proportion of teams within the top 50, helping it to be the second ranked conference in the last 24 seasons. The Big Ten has eight of its eleven teams ranked inside the top 50 (actually inside the top 37).

Michigan State is the pride of the conference and is ranked tenth in the overall rankings. Illinois and Indiana were the only teams within 100 points of the Spartans.

The Big Ten has three national championships to its credit since 1985. Indiana has one (1987), Michigan has one (1989), and Michigan State has one (2000).

Seven Big Ten teams have reached at least the Final Four in the last 24 seasons (Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota).

The separation between the Big Ten and the top ranked conference comes from the Big Ten’s lack of a top overall team and Northwestern.

Michigan State is the highest ranked overall team in the Big Ten, and they only scored high enough for tenth overall.

Northwestern, at the bottom of the Big Ten rankings, has a score of zero points. They are the only team in any of the six major conferences to not have any tournament appearances in the last 24 seasons. They weigh down the Big Ten average point total significantly.

1) ACC – Average Score: 435.00

1) Duke – 1,135 (1, 1)
2) North Carolina – 1,106 (2, 3)
3) Maryland – 601 (14, 28)
4) Georgia Tech – 446 (29, 33)
5) Wake Forest – 416 (33, T-37)
6) Boston College – 364 (T-37, T-70)
7) North Carolina State – 358 (39, 52)
8) Virginia – 278 (T-47, T-70)
9) Florida State – 180 (T-59, 128)
10) Clemson – 142 (71, T-111)
11) Miami – 122 (T-78, T-145)
12) Virginia Tech – 72 (T-102, T-210)

The ACC is the No. 1 ranked conference in the last 24 seasons. It has not only the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams overall (Duke and North Carolina), but also has eight top 50 teams.

Also, the strength of the bottom part of the ACC is much better than other conferences. This is the only conference where every team has multiple tournament victories. The 72 points for Virginia Tech, ranked last in the conference, is by far more points than any other conference’s last ranked team. The previous high point total for a last place team in a conference was 8.

The ACC has six national championships to its credit since 1985. Duke has three (1991, 1992, and 2001), North Carolina has tw0 (1993 and 2005), and Maryland has one (2002).

Surprising, only four teams in the ACC have reached the Final Four in this time period. Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, and Georgia Tech are the only teams that have done so.

In addition, it should be noted that despite the ACC’s huge advantage over any other conference in average point total, that the newest addition to the ACC have hurt the conference’s prestige. Miami and Virginia Tech are the last two rated teams in the conference and Boston College is only at No. 6.

The average point total of the ACC without these three newest teams would actually be 518, which is significantly higher than their actual average point total of 437.

Top 50 Teams:

5) Arizona Wildcats – Total Points: 749

• 1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 2 Final Four Appearances, 3 Elite Eight Appearance, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 0 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 5

Arizona is the only team in Division I college basketball that has made the NCAA tournament every year for the past 24 seasons. That, along with some very successful tournaments, makes the Wildcats undoubtedly one of the most prestigious programs of the time period.

The highlight for Arizona came in 1997 when they won a national championship. They defeated No. 1-seeded Kentucky as a No. 4 seed in the finals in a close game.

Arizona also made the national championship game in 2001 as a No. 2 seed, but they lost to No. 1-seeded Duke. The Wildcats have two other Final Four appearances since 1985; one in 1988 and one in 1994.

The reason why Arizona ranks below teams that have missed a few tournaments is their high number of first round losses. In their 24 tournament appearances in this time period, Arizona has lost in the first round ten times. This includes each of the past two seasons.

4) Kentucky Wildcats – Total Points: 978

• 2 NCAA Championships, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 6 Elite Eight Appearances, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 3 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 4

Arizona may have won the battle of the Wildcats by defeating Kentucky in the national championship game in 1997, but Kentucky wins the war by besting Arizona in the prestige rankings.

Kentucky has dominated the SEC conference and has had a lot of success in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky is below the top three in the rankings because of a tournament ban that caused them to missed three straight tournaments from 1989 to 1991, and several missed opportunities. Their six losses in the Elite Eight round is more than any other college basketball team in this period

Kentucky does have two national championships to its credit in the last 24 seasons. They won the tournament as a No. 1 seed in 1996, after defeated No. 4-seeded Syracuse in the finals, and also won it all two years later in 1998 as a No. 2 seed. There they defeated No. 3-seeded Utah in the finals.

Kentucky also made the championship game in 1997 and the Final Four in 1993.

3) Kansas Jayhawks – Total Points: 1,076

• 2 NCAA Championships, 2 Championship Game Appearances, 3 Final Four Appearances, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 1 Missed Tournamens
• ESPN Rank: 2

Kansas is the No. 3 most prestigious program in the last 24 seasons. They have been in the NCAA tournament 23 of the 24 years and have made it to at least the Final Four in seven of those years.

The Jayhawks won the national championship in 1988 as a No. 6 seed by defeating No. 1-seeded Oklahoma in the finals. Then they added another national championship this last year by defeating No. 1-seeded Memphis in the finals in dramatic overtime fashion as a No. 1 seed. Kansas’ Mario Chalmers hit a game-tying three-pointer at the end of regulation.

Kansas has also been two the national championship game two other times. In 1991 they lost to No. 2-seeded Duke in the finals as a No. 3 seed and in 2003 they lost to No. 3-seeded Syracuse in the finals as a No. 2 seed. Kansas’ other Final Four appearances came in 1986, 1993, and 2002.

You may notice the only difference in my top five teams from ESPN’s is that Kansas and UNC switched places. While Kansas has had more regular season success because they do not have any competition that matches Duke in their conference, North Carolina has had the better tournament success.

2) North Carolina Tar Heels – Total Points: 1,106

• 2 NCAA Championships, 6 Final Four Appearances, 4 Elite Eight Appearances, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 2 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 3

The Tar Heels are the second most prestigious basketball program over the last 24 seasons. They have only two missed tournaments, both of which came under coach Matt Doherty during the recovery after Dean Smith’s retirement.

Amazingly, in the 22 tournament appearances, UNC has only lost in the first round once. This came in 1999 when they were upset as a No. 3 seed by No. 14-seeded Weber State.

North Carolina has reached at least the Final Four eight times. They won the national championship in 1993 as a No. 1 seed by defeated No. 1-seeded Michigan. Then, after their only other Final Four victory in this time period, UNC won another national championship in 2005. They defeated No. 1-seeded Illinois as a No. 1 seed. The Tar Heels also had six losses in the semi-finals (1991, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2008).

1) Duke Blue Devils – Total Points: 1,135

• 3 NCAA Championships, 4 Championship Game Appearances, 3 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 6 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 1 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 1

The number one most prestigious team in the last 24 seasons is the Duke Blue Devils. It seems no matter what criteria you use, Duke has been the top program in college basketball in this time period.

The Blue Devils have only missed one tournament, which came in 1995. They have also only lost in the first round twice out of their 23 tournament appearances.

Duke has made it to at least the Final Four ten times since 1985, easily more than any other team. Duke won the national championships in 1991, 1992, and 2001. In 1991 they defeated No. 3-seeded Kansas in the finals as a No. 2 seed. Then the next season they beat No. 6-seeded Michigan in the championship game as a No. 1 seed. They also won the tournament in 2001 as a No. 1 seed, when they defeated No. 2-seeded Arizona in the finals.

Duke has also lost in the championship four times. They lost to No. 2-seeded Louisville as a No. 1 seed in 1986, to No. 1-seeded UNLV as a No. 3 seed in 1990, to No. 1-seeded Arkansas as a No. 2 seed in 1994, and finally to No. 1-seeded UConn as a No. 1 seed in 1999.

Duke also made the Final Four in 1988, 1989, and 2004, but lost all of their semi-final games in those years.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part IX

This is the ninth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 4-6, and all of the teams rated No. 6-10.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

6) Pac 10 – Average Point Total: 280.20

1) Arizona – 749 (5, 5)
2) UCLA – 731 (6, 7)
3) Stanford – 466 (25, 25)
4) California – 210 (T-54, T-109)
5) Washington – 158 (64, T-124)
6) Southern California – 152 (65, T-132)
7) Oregon – 124 (T-76, T-115)
8) Arizona State – 118 (82, T-181)
9) Washington State – 86 (T-96, T-237)
10) Oregon State – 8 (T-163, T-241)

The Pac 10 ranks last out of all the major conferences because of the lack of depth. Arizona and UCLA are both elite teams ranking inside the top ten, but Stanford is the only other team ranked in the top 50 teams at No. 25.

All of the other teams in the Pac 10 have had sporadic tournament success, except for Oregon State, but none of them have had consistent enough success to place them high in the Prestige Rankings.

The Pac 10 does have two national championships to its credit in the past 24 seasons. Not surprisingly, they were won by Arizona and UCLA. UCLA won the NCAA tournament in 1995 as a No. 1 seed and Arizona won the championship as a No. 4 seed in 1997.

The only Final Four by teams other than Arizona or UCLA was in 1998 when Stanford reached the semi-final round as a No. 3 seed.

Oregon State and Washington State are the weakest teams in the conference. Washington State has almost all of their points in the past two seasons, with a second round exit in 2007 and a Sweet Sixteen last season. Oregon State had four tournament appearances from 1985-1990, but lost in all of their first round games.

5) Big 12 – Average Point Total: 321.67

1) Kansas – 1,076 (3, 2)
2) Texas – 632 (12, 18)
3) Oklahoma – 576 (16, 12)
4) Oklahoma State – 506 (20, 32)
5) Missouri – 316 (42, T-37)
6) Iowa State – 304 (45, T-57)
7) Texas Tech – 144 (T-69, T-90)
8) Kansas State – 134 (72, T-124)
9) Texas A&M – 120 (T-80, 174)
10) Colorado – 36 (T-149, 219)
11) Nebraska– 12 (T-157, T-141)
12) Baylor – 4 (T-191, T-266)

The success of Kansas is the big factor that puts the Big 12 ahead of the Pac 10 in the rankings. The mediocrity of the rest of the conference throughout the years is what keeps the Big 12 below the other major conferences.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Iowa State are all also ranked inside the top 50, but their point totals are not enough to compete with the top teams in the other conferences.

The Big 12 Conference, like the Pac 10, also has two national championships. Both were won by Kansas. The Jayhawks won the 1988 NCAA tournament as a No. 6 seed and won this last year’s tournament as a No. 1 seed.

In addition to Kansas; Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Texas all have Final Four appearances in the last 24 seasons (Oklahoma State has two).

The bottom three teams in this conference are what really weigh down its average. Colorado only has two tournament appearances, even though they did win one of their first round games. Nebraska, along with Louisiana Monroe and North Carolina A&T, holds the unenviable title of most tournament appearances (six) without a tournament victory in the time period. Baylor also is without a tournament victory, and has only two tournament appearances.

4) SEC – Average Score: 338.42

1) Kentucky – 978 (4, 4)
2) Arkansas – 563 (17, T-14)
3) Florida – 500 (22, 21)
4) Alabama – 484 (23, T-35)
5) LSU – 314 (43, T-40)
6) Auburn – 310 (44, T-90)
7) Mississippi State – 252 (49, T-86)
8) Tennessee – 224 (53, 99)
9) Vanderbilt – 208 (57, T-96)
10) Georgia – 130 (T-73, T-105)
11) Mississippi – 90 (92, T-192)
12) South Carolina – 8 (T-163, T-185)

While the SEC has slightly more balance than the Big 12, the lack of any top 15 teams outside of Kentucky puts the SEC in the second half of the rankings for the major conferences. The SEC has eight top 50 teams while the Big 12 only had six. Tennessee and Vanderbilt also both fall just outside of the top 50, at No. 53 and No. 57 respectively.

Another advantage for the SEC is that it stakes claim to five national championships since 1985. Arkansas has won one (1994), Kentucky has won two (1996 and 1998), and Florida has won two (2006 and 2007). LSU and Mississippi State are the only two other teams in this conference with at least one Final Four appearance (LSU actually has two).

Despite a slightly down year last season, the SEC has become a much stronger conference in the past couple of years. Florida, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt have all established, or at least begun to establish, themselves as top basketball programs.

South Carolina is the only team in the SEC without a tournament victory. They have certainly had their chances though, qualifying for the NCAA tournament four times in the past 24 years. The Gamecocks fell victim to two major upsets in consecutive seasons. They lost as a No. 2 seed in 1997 to No. 15-seeded Coppin State and as a No. 3 seed the next year to No. 14-seeded Richmond.

Top 50 Teams:

10) Michigan State Spartans – Total Points: 655

• 1 NCAA Championship, 3 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 6 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: T-10

Very few teams have the talent, coaching, and luck to make it to the Final Four round three years in a row. Michigan State was able to accomplish this feat in 1999, 2000, and 2001.

Led by point guard sensation Mateen Cleaves in the first two seasons and coach Tom Izzo in all three, the Spartans reached the Final Four as a No. 1 seed in 1999, won the championship as a No. 1 seed in 2000, and again reached the Final Four as a No. 1 seed in 2001.

Michigan State also has one other Final Four appearance. They reached the semi-final round as a No. 5 seed in 2005 before being beaten handily by No. 1 seed and eventual champion UNC.

The Spartans do have six missed tournament and five first round losses, enough to keep them from moving much higher in the rankings.

9) Georgetown Hoyas – Total Points: 690

• 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 8 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: T-10

From 1997 to 2005, Georgetown only qualified for two NCAA tournaments. One resulted in a first round loss in 1997 and the other a Sweet Sixteen loss in 2001. Amazingly, Georgetown’s success in the other years of this time period has more than made up for that drought. The Hoyas only missed one other NCAA tournament outside of this time period (1993).

The main tournament highlight (or disappointment, depending how you look at it) for Georgetown was in 1985 when they made the championship game as a No. 1 seed. There they were heavily favored against tournament Cinderella and No. 8-seeded Villanova. However, Villanova won the battle of Big East teams and upset the Hoyas in one of the most epic NCAA tournament championship games of all time.

Georgetown also made the Final Four in 2007 as a No. 2 seed, getting on the better side of an upset in the Elite Eight by beating No. 1-seeded UNC.

One of the major advantages for Georgetown is that they only have one first round loss, which I mentioned before as being in 1993. Again, since most of the teams in the NCAA tournament are eliminated in the first round, the biggest jump in points comes from winning a first round game.

Georgetown is the only team inside the top ten in the rankings without an NCAA Championship.

8) Syracuse Orangemen – Total Points: 713

• 1 NCAA Championship, 2 Championship Game Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 9

Syracuse has fallen from the elite ranks in the past four years, but still has done enough in the past 24 seasons to be one of the most prestigious programs overall. The Orangemen were victims of an upset in the NCAA tournament in 2005 as a No. 4 seed to No. 13-seeded Vermont, and again in 2006 as a No. 5 seed to No. 12-seeded Texas A&M. Since then, they have not made the tournament in either of the previous two seasons.

Syracuse’s most glorious moment came in 2003 when Carmelo Anthony led them to a National Championship as a No. 3 seed. They defeated No. 2-seeded UConn in the championship by three points.

Syracuse also fell just short of championships in 1987 and 1996. In 1987 they lost in the final game as a No. 2 seed by one point to No. 1-seeded Indiana. In 1996 they lost as a No. 4 seed to No. 1-seed Kentucky.

Aside from their recent struggles, Syracuse has been one of the most consistent teams in the country. Their three missed tournaments from 1985 to 2006 were all spread out (1993, 1997, and 2002).

7) Connecticut Huskies – Total Points: 724

• 2 NCAA Championships, 5 Elite Eight Appearances, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 9 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 6

The Huskies have at least four more missed tournaments than any team that is ranked higher than them in the rankings. UConn did not qualify for a single NCAA tournament from 1985 to 1989. However, they have more than had their fair share of tournament success.

Connecticut only has one first round loss in the time period, and that came this past year as a No. 4 seed to No. 13-seeded San Diego. UConn’s starting point guard, A.J. Price, was injured for most of the game.

Connecticut has won two national championships in the time period. The first was in 1999 as a No. 1 seed. They defeated No. 1-seeded Duke in the finals by three points. The other was in 2004 as a No. 2 seed, where they defeated No. 3-seeded Georgia Tech in the finals.

6) UCLA Bruins – Total Points: 731

• 1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 2 Final Four Appearances, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 7

No team is currently hotter than the UCLA Bruins, who have made it to at least the Final Four in each of the past three seasons. In 2006 they made the championship game as a No. 2 seed, where they lost to No. 3-seeded Florida. In 2007 they lost their semi-final match-up as a No. 2 seed, again to Florida (this time a No. 1 seed). And in 2008 they also lost their semi-final game to No. 1-seeded Memphis as a No. 1 seed.

Even though they missed good chances to win a championship in each of the last three seasons, the Bruins did manage to win a championship in this time period. It came in 1995, and it was the only other time besides the last three seasons that they reached the Final Four. UCLA was able to defeat No. 2-seeded Arkansas as a No. 1 seed in the championship game in 1995.

UCLA struggled the most during this time period in the late 1980’s. From 1985 to 1989 the Bruins had three missed tournaments and never reached the Sweet Sixteen.

The main reason UCLA missed out on a top five spot in the rankings is their five missed tournaments. No team ranked in the top five has more than three missed tournaments.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part VIII

This is the eighth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 7-9, and all of the teams rated No. 11-15.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

9) Conference USA – Average Point Total: 106.83

1) Memphis – 460 (26, T-14)
2) Tulsa – 302 (46, 39)
T-3) UTEP – 162 (T-62, T-65)
T-3) UAB – 162 (T-62, T-76)
5) Tulane – 102 (84, T-157)
6) Southern Methodist – 70 (T-112, T-165)
7) Central Florida – 8 (T-163, T-196)
8) Houston – 6 (T-175, T-161)
T-9) Southern Mississippi – 4 (T-191, T-177)
T-9) Marshall – 4 (T-191, T-168)
11) East Carolina – 2 (T-226, T-271)
12) Rice – 0 (T-273, T-247)

With the recent loss of teams such as Louisville, Cincinnati, and Depaul, Conference USA has dropped back a level from the rest of the major conferences. However, the strength of the top teams still keeps Conference USA a big step ahead of the mid-major conferences.

Conference USA teams have an average point total of 106.83, while WCC teams (the conference ranked just below Conference USA) have an average point total of only 72.50.

Memphis is currently the dominant team in this conference and easily earns the top spot in the rankings, with 100 more points than second-place Tulsa.

The top five teams in this conference all have over 100 points and are all ranked in the top 84 overall, but there is a big drop-off after that. Southern Methodist, ranked No. 6 in the conference, is the only other team with an NCAA tournament victory in the past 24 seasons.

8) Mountain West – Average Point Total: 148.33

1) UNLV – 453 (27, 8)
2) Utah – 448 (28, 24)
3) New Mexico – 144 (T-69, T-70)
4) BYU – 120 (T-80, 46)
5) Wyoming – 86 (T-96, T-111)
6) Colorado State – 38 (T-142, T-148)
7) TCU – 36 (T-149, T-138)
8) San Diego State – 6 (T-175, T-208)
9) Air Force – 4 (T-191, T-260)

The Mountain West Conference is ahead of Conference USA in the standings because they have two powerhouse teams, while Conference USA only has one. UNLV and Utah are both in the top 30 overall teams.

UNLV barely edged out Utah for the top spot in the Mountain West. Not only are they one after another in the conference standings, but they are also one after another in the overall standings (at 27 and 28 respectively).

Every team in the Mountain West has at least two tournament appearances in the past 24 seasons, and all except San Diego State and Air Force have won at least one game.

The Mountain West is also the first conference we have seen to have a National Championship since 1985. UNLV won the National Championship in 1990.

New Mexico has also had good tournament success, earning four straight first round victories from 1996 to 1999. BYU has twelve tournament appearances, but has lost in the first round nine times and in the second round the other three times. Wyoming is the team that has made the most of their tournament appearances. They have only made the NCAA tournament three times in the past 24 seasons but have a Sweet Sixteen appearance (1987) and a second round exit (2002).

7) Atlantic 10 – Average Score: 148.71

1) Temple – 538 (19, 20)
2) Xavier – 418 (32, 17)
3) Massachusetts – 242 (51, 42)
4) St. Joseph’s – 180 (T-59, T-57)
5) Charlotte – 148 (66, 73)
6) Rhode Island – 146 (T-67, T-134)
7) George Washington – 128 (75, 123)
8) Richmond – 124 (T-76, T-65)
9) Saint Louis – 72 (T-102, T-148)
10) Dayton – 42 (T-130, T-168)
11) La Salle – 40 (T-132, T-132)
T-12) St. Bonaventure – 2 (T-226, T-278)
T-12) Fordham – 2 (T-226, T-214)
14) Duquesne – 0 (T-273, 293)

The Atlantic 10 just barely squeaked ahead of the Mountain West in the rankings, posting an average team point total of less than .5 points higher than the Mountain West. The Atlantic 10 has more teams that have had very good tournament success. The top 8 teams all have well over 100 points.

Temple took first place, Xavier took second, and UMass took third in this conference, all teams well above the teams below them in point total.

Surprisingly, the Atlantic 10 has only one Final Four appearance in the past 24 seasons. That came in 1996 when UMass, led by Marcus Camby and coached by John Calipari, made the semi-final round as a No. 1 seed. They lost to fellow No. 1 seed and eventual champion Kentucky.

The last three teams in the conference rankings, St. Bonaventure, Fordham, and Duquesne, do significantly weight this conference down. Every other team besides these three has at least one tournament victory and at least four tournament appearances since 1985.

Top 50 Teams:

15) Indiana Hoosiers – Total Points: 587

• 1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 3 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 13

Indiana grabs the final spot in the top 15 with their incredible consistency. They have only three missed tournaments, meaning they have played in the NCAA tournament 21 of the last 24 seasons. This is the least missed tournaments of any team outside the top five in the rankings.

Indiana also has some very good tournament success to speak of. They won the National Championship as a No. 1 seed in 1987. Led by the coaching of Bobby Knight, they won the championship game over No. 2-seeded Syracuse by one point.

The Hoosiers also reached the finals of the NCAA tournament in 2002 as a No. 5 seed. They lost to No. 1-seeded Maryland. Indiana’s only other Final Four in the past 24 seasons came in 1992 as a No. 2 seed, where they lost to No. 1-seeded and eventual champion Duke.

The main negative for Indiana is that they have nine first round losses. Also, their 2002 finals appearance was the only time they have advanced past the second round of the tournament since 1994.

14) Maryland Terrapins – Total Points: 601

• 1 NCAA Championship, 1 Final Four Appearance, 6 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 9 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 28

Although they have a relatively high number of missed tournaments, Maryland is high in the rankings because of their good finishes, including only losing in the first round twice. Their two first round losses came in back-to-back seasons, in 1996 and 1997. They lost to No. 10-seeded Santa Clara in 1996 as a No. 7 seed and to No. 12-seeded College of Charleston as a No. 5 seed in 1997.

The highlight for Maryland was winning the NCAA Championship in 2002. They won the tournament without playing a game closer than eight points as a No. 1 seed and one of the tournament favorites.

Maryland also reached the Final Four the previous season in 2001 as a No. 3 seed. They lost their semi-final match-up to conference foe and eventual champion Duke, who was a No. 1 seed that year.

The six Sweet Sixteen appearances for the Terrapins is very high. Only the No. 1 ranked team has as many losses in the third round of the NCAA tournament in the last 24 seasons.

13) Illinois Fighting Illini – Total Points: 616

• 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 23

Despite not having won a National Championship, Illinois still is one of the most prestigious college basketball programs in the past 24 seasons. Illinois only has missed out on the tournament five times and has several top finishes.

The best finish for the Fighting Illini was in 2005. They reached the finals of the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed with the help of a miraculous comeback to defeated No. 2-seeded Arizona in the Elite Eight. They lost in a close game to another No. 1 seed and extremely talented team, North Carolina.

Illinois also qualified for the Final Four in 1989 as a No. 1 seed. There they lost a two point game to No. 2-seeded and eventual champion Michigan.

12) Texas Longhorns – Total Points: 632

• 1 Final Four Appearance, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 6 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 18

Texas also does not have an NCAA championship in the past 24 seasons, or even a championship game appearance. But the Longhorns do have other tournament success to speak of.

After not making the NCAA tournament in 1985, 1986, or 1987, Texas has made the tournament in 18 of the last 21 seasons. Texas has had a number of extremely good teams in recent years, placing fourth overall in the rankings for this decade only.

The best finish for Texas came in 2003 as a No. 1 seed when they reached the Final Four, before losing to Carmelo Anthony and No. 3-seeded Syracuse. Texas also reached the Elite Eight in 1990, 2006, and 2008.

11) Louisville Cardinals – Total Points: 637

• 1 NCAA Championship, 1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: T-14

Louisville has been an extremely consistent basketball program over the last 24 seasons and also has achieved great tournament success.

The Cardinals won the NCAA Championship in 1986 as a No. 2 seed. They defeated No. 1-seeded Duke in the finals by three points.

Louisville also made the Final Four in 2005 as a No. 4 seed, where they were beaten easily by No. 1-seeded Illinois.

Even though the Louisville basketball program has experienced a strong resurgence lately, most of the Cardinals tournament success came in the time period from 1986 to 1997. They only missed the tournament two years in this stretch, only lost in the first round one year, and only lost in the second round two years. That leaves seven of the twelve years that they at least made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part VII

This is the seventh part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 10-12, and all of the teams rated No. 16-20.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

12) Horizon League – Average Point Total: 54.00

1) Butler – 174 (61, 47)
2) Wisconsin-Milwaukee – 86 (T-96, T-124)
3) Detroit – 68 (T-114, T-165)
4) Valparaiso – 62 (116, 56)
T-5) Cleveland State – 50 (T-121, T-185)
T-5) Loyola (IL) – 50 (T-121, T-233)
7) Wisconsin-Green Bay – 40 (T-132, T-105)
8) Illinois-Chicago – 6 (T-175, T-172)
9) Wright State – 4 (T-191, T-177)
10) Youngstown State – 0 (T-273, 287)

The Horizon League is a very balance conference, especially in the middle. The top seven teams all have at least one tournament victory in the past 24 seasons. The top six teams all have at least two tournament victories.

Butler is far and away the most prestigious program in this conference though. They have more than double the point total of the second place team, Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Butler has two Sweet Sixteen appearances (2003 and 2007) and two second round exits (2001 and 2008). They also have three other tournament appearances, the first of which in this time period did not come until 1997.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is another team with only recent tournament success. Almost all of their points come from a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2005 and a second round exit in 2006.

It should also be pointed out that all of Valparaiso’s tournament success came as members of the Mid-Continent Conference (which has turned into the Summit League). Valparaiso joined the Horizon League in 2007, so they have only played two seasons in this conference.

Youngstown State is the only team in this conference without an NCAA tournament appearance since 1985.

11) Missouri Valley Conference – Average Point Total: 68.60

1) Southern Illinois – 146 (T-67, T-53)
2) Creighton – 114 (83, 59)
3) Missouri State – 92 (T-90, 55)
4) Bradley – 88 (T-93, T-102)
5) Illinois State – 72 (T-102, T-102)
6) Wichita State – 56 (T-118, 160)
T-7) Northern Iowa – 40 (T-132, T-214)
T-7) Evansville – 40 (T-132, T-148)
9) Indiana State – 36 (T-149, T-260)
10) Drake – 2 (T-226, T-274)

The Missouri Valley is the first conference to appear in the rankings having two teams eclipse the 100 point mark. Southern Illinois and Creighton have had the most tournament success of these teams, with the Salukis topping the Blue Jays for the top spot in the conference.

The Missouri Valley has recently established itself as the strongest mid-major conference in college basketball, but many teams have had tournament success in this conference throughout the past 24 seasons.

Every single team in this conference, except Drake, has recorded a tournament victory in the time period. Drake actually dominated the league last season and earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, but they fell victim to No. 12-seeded Western Kentucky in a thrilling overtime upset.

Southern Illinois has two Sweet Sixteen appearances and one second round tournament exit, with all of their tournament wins coming since 2002. Creighton has three first round victories, but has not yet reached the Sweet Sixteen. Both of these teams tied for the most tournament appearances in the last 24 seasons with nine each.

Missouri State, Bradley, and Wichita State all have Sweet Sixteen appearances (Missouri State also has one second round exit). Illinois State has two first round victories, and Northern Iowa, Evansville, and Indiana State all have one first round tournament victory each.

13) West Coast Conference – Average Score: 72.50

1) Gonzaga – 318 (41, 26)
2) Loyola Marymount – 94 (T-87, T-161)
3) Santa Clara – 72 (T-102, T-145)
4) Pepperdine – 46 (T-124, T-80)
5) San Diego– 38 (T-142, T-148)
6) Saint Mary’s– 8 (T-163, T-206)
T-7) San Francisco– 2 (T-226, T-229)
T-7) Portland – 2 (T-226, T-253)

The high ranking for the WCC can be attributed mainly to the overwhelming tournament success of Gonzaga. Gonzaga’s success was highlighted in the top 50 teams section in Part 2 of this series.

Gonzaga easily is the top team in this conference, having more than triple the points of the second place team, Loyola Marymount.

Loyola Marymount fell just shy of the 100 point mark. They had three straight tournament appearances from 1988 to 1990, and managed one second round exit and one Elite Eight appearance.

Santa Clara is the only other team in this conference with multiple tournament victories over the past 24 seasons. They won first round games in 1993 and 1996.

Pepperdine and San Diego have one tournament win each in this time frame. None of the bottom three teams have recorded a tournament victory, but all have reached the NCAA tournament at least once.

Top 50 Teams:

20) Oklahoma State Cowboys – Total Points: 506

• 2 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 11 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 32

The Cowboys have at least two more missed tournaments than any other team inside the top 20, but they make up for it with impressive tournament highlights and only two first round losses.

Oklahoma State made the Final Four in 1995 as a No. 4 seed and again in 2004 as a No. 2 seed. They also made the Elite Eight in 2000 as a No. 3 seed.

Unfortunately for Oklahoma State, they had zero tournament appearances from 1985-1990 and have not made the NCAA tournament in the past three seasons.

19) Temple Owls – Total Points: 538

• 5 Elite Eight Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 20

Temple ties with UConn for the second most losses in the round before the Final Four. Only Kentucky has more Elite Eight losses. Temple made the Elite Eight in 1988, 1991, 1993, 1999, and 2001.

The Temple basketball program took a big step back after the 2001 Elite Eight appearance. They missed the NCAA tournament for the next six seasons in a row after having only one other missed tournament in the last 24 seasons in 1989. Temple did qualify for the tournament this past season as a No. 12 seed, but lost their first round game to No. 5-seeded Michigan State.

Temple is the highest rated team in the rankings that is not from one of the traditional power conferences.

18) Purdue Boilermakers – Total Points: 546

• 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 29

Purdue has only lost three first round tournament games in their 17 tournament appearances, and has only lost one since 1987. That came in 1994 when they lost as a No. 9 seed to No. 8-seeded Rhode Island.

Purdue also has two Elite Eight appearances. One came in 1994 as a No. 1 seed and the other was in 2000 as a No. 6 seed. They also made the Sweet Sixteen in 1988, 1998, and 1999.

While Purdue did miss five NCAA tournaments from 2001 to 2006, the Boilermakers have participated in the tournament each of the last two seasons. They have won their first round games in each of those two appearances, but failed to win their second round match-ups.

17) Arkansas Razorbacks – Total Points: 563

• 1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: T-14

All of the Razorbacks’ highlighted tournament finishes came between 1990 and 1996. They only failed to reach at least the Sweet Sixteen one time in this period; they lost in the second round in 1992 as a No. 3 seed to No. 6-seeded Memphis.

Arkansas won the NCAA championship in 1994 as a No. 1 seed, lost in the 1995 NCAA Championship game as a No. 2 seed to No. 1-seeded UCLA, and also made the Final Four in 1990 as a No. 4 seed.

Unfortunately for Razorbacks fans, Arkansas has not returned to the elite level in college basketball since their 1996 Sweet Sixteen performance. They have not reached the Sweet Sixteen since, and have missed the tournament five of the last twelve seasons. They have also lost their first round games four times when they did qualify for the NCAA tournament in the same time period.

16) Oklahoma Sooners – Total Points: 576

• 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
• ESPN Rank: 12

The Sooners have been the most consistent basketball program we have seen so far in the team rankings. They have made the NCAA tournament 19 of the last 24 seasons, only failing to qualify five times.

Oklahoma reached the final game of the NCAA tournament in 1988 as a No. 1 seed. They lost by four points to No. 6-seed Kansas.

The Sooners only other Final Four appearance came in 2002 as a No. 2 seed. They also reached the Elite Eight in 1985 as a No. 1 seed and in 2003 as a No. 1 seed.

The main negative for Oklahoma is that they do have seven first round losses.