Seeds in the Final Four

No. 1 Seeds

The 2008 NCAA tournament provided the first Final Four consisting of all No. 1 seeds since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (and later 65 teams).

Assuming teams are seeded accurately, the No. 1seeds are the most likely to advance from the Final Four in each region. Clearly this is not good to go off of when filling out your bracket though, as the chance of all four No. 1 seeds advancing is very slim.

Since 2000, a No. 1 seed has been in the Final Four for every NCAA tournament except one year. The exception was in 2006, when three No. 1 seeds all lost in the Elite Eight.

In five of the last nine NCAA tournaments, there have been at least two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. The only time there were actually more than two was this past season, when there were four.

Out of the 36 teams that have qualified for the Final Four since 2000, 15 (42 percent) of them have been No. 1 seeds.

No. 2 Seeds

Should a No. 1 seed in a region fall, the next most likely candidate for the Final Four is the No. 2 seed.

There has been at least one No. 2 seed in six of the past nine Final Fours, and there have been two No. 2 seeds to advance to the semifinal round in two of the years.

Overall, eight (22 percent) of the 36 teams to make the Final Four since 2000 have been No. 2 seeds.

Overall Distribution

Here are the complete percentages for each respective seed qualifying for the Final Four since 2000.

No. 1 seeds: 42 percent

No. 2 seeds: 22 percent

No. 3 seeds: 14 percent

No. 4 seeds: 6 percent

No. 5 seeds: 8 percent

No. 6 seeds: 0 percent

No. 7 seeds: 0 percent

No. 8 seeds: 6 percent

No. 9 seeds: 0 percent

No. 10 seeds: 0 percent

No. 11 seeds: 3 percent

No. 12 seeds: 0 percent

No. 13 seeds: 0 percent

No. 14 seeds: 0 percent

No. 15 seeds: 0 percent

No. 16 seeds: 0 percent

In addition, no team seeded higher than 11 has ever qualified for the Final Four since the 1985 expansion. Seed Nos. 7, 9, and 10 have also never reached the Final Four since 1985.

Total Seed Number in the Final Four

A good way to assess the distribution of seeds that appear in the Final Four is to look at the sum of the seed numbers that reach the Final Four. The smallest possible seed number is four, which is the case only if all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four.

Over the last nine seasons, the total seed number has been as low as four last season and as high as 22 in 2000. The average total seed number has been 10.7, and we can be 95 percent confident that the overall average total seed number for all seasons is between six and 15.

Suggestion Summary

• Take either one or two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.

• Take one No. 2 seed in your Final Four.

• Make sure your total seed number isn’t too low or too high (aim for around 10).

• Don’t take any No. 7, 9, or 10 seeds in your Final Four.

Seeds in the Final Four

No. 1 Seeds

The 2008 NCAA tournament provided the first Final Four consisting of all No. 1 seeds since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (and later 65 teams).

Assuming teams are seeded accurately, the No. 1seeds are the most likely to advance from the Final Four in each region. Clearly this is not good to go off of when filling out your bracket though, as the chance of all four No. 1 seeds advancing is very slim.

Since 2000, a No. 1 seed has been in the Final Four for every NCAA tournament except one year. The exception was in 2006, when three No. 1 seeds all lost in the Elite Eight.

In five of the last nine NCAA tournaments, there have been at least two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. The only time there were actually more than two was this past season, when there were four.

Out of the 36 teams that have qualified for the Final Four since 2000, 15 (42 percent) of them have been No. 1 seeds.

No. 2 Seeds

Should a No. 1 seed in a region fall, the next most likely candidate for the Final Four is the No. 2 seed.

There has been at least one No. 2 seed in six of the past nine Final Fours, and there have been two No. 2 seeds to advance to the semifinal round in two of the years.

Overall, eight (22 percent) of the 36 teams to make the Final Four since 2000 have been No. 2 seeds.

Overall Distribution

Here are the complete percentages for each respective seed qualifying for the Final Four since 2000.

No. 1 seeds: 42 percent

No. 2 seeds: 22 percent

No. 3 seeds: 14 percent

No. 4 seeds: 6 percent

No. 5 seeds: 8 percent

No. 6 seeds: 0 percent

No. 7 seeds: 0 percent

No. 8 seeds: 6 percent

No. 9 seeds: 0 percent

No. 10 seeds: 0 percent

No. 11 seeds: 3 percent

No. 12 seeds: 0 percent

No. 13 seeds: 0 percent

No. 14 seeds: 0 percent

No. 15 seeds: 0 percent

No. 16 seeds: 0 percent

In addition, no team seeded higher than 11 has ever qualified for the Final Four since the 1985 expansion. Seed Nos. 7, 9, and 10 have also never reached the Final Four since 1985.

Total Seed Number in the Final Four

A good way to assess the distribution of seeds that appear in the Final Four is to look at the sum of the seed numbers that reach the Final Four. The smallest possible seed number is four, which is the case only if all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four.

Over the last nine seasons, the total seed number has been as low as four last season and as high as 22 in 2000. The average total seed number has been 10.7, and we can be 95 percent confident that the overall average total seed number for all seasons is between six and 15.

Suggestion Summary

• Take either one or two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.

• Take one No. 2 seed in your Final Four.

• Make sure your total seed number isn’t too low or too high (aim for around 10).

• Don’t take any No. 7, 9, or 10 seeds in your Final Four.

Filling Out Your Bracket: Use Conference Tendencies for Final Four Teams

In the nine NCAA tournaments played in the current decade, the six major conferences have accounted for 34 of the 36 Final Four teams. The only two teams to qualify for the Final Four outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Big 12, and Pac-10 were George Mason from the CAA in 2006 and Memphis from Conference USA in 2008.

So when you are filling out your bracket for March Madness, the safest bet is to have all of your Final Four teams from the top six conferences.

Furthermore, since the 2000 NCAA tournament, the following are the average number of teams each major conference has placed in the Final Four per year.

1) ACC: .889

2) Big Ten: .778

3) Big 12: .667

4) Big East: .556

T-5) SEC: .444

T-5) Pac-10: .444

An ACC team has been in the Final Four in six of the nine NCAA tournaments this decade.

The Big East averages 6.89 teams making the tournament each year during the 2000s, whereas no other conference averages more than 5.44 qualifying teams. However, the Big East does not have the highest number of teams qualifying for the Final Four on average.

Therefore, quantity does not imply quality. Just because a conference has more teams in the NCAA tournament does not mean that conference will have more teams in the Final Four.

Also notice that seven of the last nine Final Fours have featured two teams from one conference, and one of those even featured two teams from two conferences. In 2003 the Big 12 (Kansas and Texas) and the Big East (Syracuse and Marquette) both had two teams in the Final Four.

No conference has ever had more than three Final Four representatives in one season, at least in this decade.

Out of the eight different times a conference has had two teams in the Final Four this decade, it has been the ACC twice, the Big Ten twice, the Big 12 twice, the Big East once, and the SEC once.

However, both of the two most recent NCAA tournaments had four teams from four different conferences. This is most likely coincidence, but it does provide some question as to whether this trend of multiple teams from one conference being in the Final Four is changing.

In summary, for when you are picking your Final Four teams:

• Pick only teams from the six major conferences.
• Pick at least one ACC team.
• The four conferences most commonly represented in the Final Four, in order from most to least, are the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East.
• Don’t pick teams from a specific conference just because that conference has a lot of teams in the tournament.
• Know that two teams from the same conference usually make the Final Four, but be careful when choosing which conference.