Statistics in Sports

Filling Out Your Bracket: The Final Four

2009-03-15T14:06:00.000-07:00

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, there have been 13 games in the Final Four featuring a No. 1 seed against a non-No. 1 seed. No. 1 seeds have won an impressive 10 (77 percent) of those games. The average margin of victory in these games was the No. 1 seed winning by 6.46 points per game. Of the three losses a No. 1 seed experienced in the Final Four against a higher-seeded team, two came against a No. 2 seed and one came against a No. 3 seed. No. 1 seeds won five out of five games against teams seeded No. 4 or higher in the Final Four.

No. 2 Seeds

There have been 12 Final Four games featuring a No. 2 seed since 2000 – seven that played as the favored seed and five that played as the higher seed. No. 2 seeds won only three of the seven (43 percent) against higher seeds, and two of the five (40 percent) against No. 1 seeds. In all Final Four games involving a No. 2 seed, the average margin of victory has been for the No. 2 seed to win by 0.75 points per game.

Same Seeds

There have been five games in the NCAA Tournament this decade that have matched even seeds against each other. All of these games have had two No. 1 seeds playing, and three of them occurred in last year’s tournament (2008). The average margin of victory for the winning team is actually 10.8 points per game in these five games. The closest game of the five was a five point win by North Carolina over Illinois in the 2005 National Championship.

Conferences

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Final Four games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

SEC: 5-2 (71 percent)
ACC: 7-5 (58 percent)
Big East: 4-3 (57 percent)
Big Ten: 5-6 (45 percent)
Conference USA: 1-1 (50 percent)
Big 12: 3-5 (38 percent)
Pac-10: 2-4 (33 percent)
Colonial: 0-1 (0 percent)

Even though the SEC has the best record as a conference, the only team with any Final Four victories in the SEC is Florida. Florida has won the national championship twice and runner-up once since 2000. Similarly, Memphis is the only representative for Conference USA and George Mason is the only representative for the Colonial Athletic Association.

Summary

No. 1 seeds have had tremendous success against non-No. 1 seeds in the Final Four
No. 2 seeds have struggled in Final Four games, even when they are the favored seed
Games featuring teams of the same seed have not turned out to be very close games
The Pac-10 and Big 12 conferences have been the worst of the power conferences in Final Four games

Filling Out Your Bracket: The Elite Eight

2009-03-13T13:13:00.001-07:00

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, 26 out of 36 (72 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight. 15 out of those 26 (58 percent), or 42 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Final Four.

No. 1 seeds have played No. 2 seeds 11 times in the Elite Eight, and they have won only five (45 percent) of those games. No. 1 seeds have played No. 3 seeds eight times, winning only four (50 percent). They have played five games combined in the Elite Eight against No. 6, No. 7, and No. 10 seeds and have won all of them. They have also played against a No. 11 seed twice, winning once and losing once.

Overall in Sweet Elite Eight games, No. 1 seeds have an average margin of victory of 1.77 points per game in their favor. Against only No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, this average margin is still in their advantage slightly at 0.58 points per game.

No. 2 Seeds

No. 2 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight 15 times out of a possible 36 (42 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Final Four eight (53 percent) of those times. This equates to 22 percent of the original 36 No. 2 seeds since 2000 making the Final Four.

No. 2 seeds have played No. 1 seeds 11 times, and also a No. 4 seed, No. 5 seed, No. 8 seed, and a No. 12 seed once each. Interestingly, the No. 2 seeds have fared just as well in Elite games against No. 1 seeds (winning 55 percent of the time) as they have against the higher seeds combined (winning 50 percent of the time).

Overall, No. 2 seeds have had an average margin of victory of 2.4 points per game in their favor in Elite Eight games.

Overall

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Sweet Sixteen games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

ACC: 8-1 (89 percent)
Big Ten: 7-4 (64 percent)
SEC: 4-3 (57 percent)
Big East: 5-5 (50 percent)
Big 12: 6-8 (43 percent)
Pac-10: 4-6 (40 percent)
Other: 2-9 (18 percent)

The other conferences, besides power conferences, that have played in the Elite Eight since 2000 are the Atlantic Ten, Conference USA, MAC, CAA, and Southern Conference.

Summary

No. 1 seeds have no advantage over No. 2 or No. 3 seeds in Elite Eight games, but it is much more difficult for a No. 2 or No. 3 seed to reach the Elite Eight than for a No. 1 seed
No. 2 seeds have won about half of their Elite Eight games, and have actually done better when they play a No. 1 seed than when they play a higher seed
The ACC has won eight of nine Elite Eight games since 2000
The Big 12 and Pac 10 have relatively poor records in the Elite Eight
Non-power conferences have had very little success in Elite Eight games since 2000

The Sweet Sixteen

2009-03-11T08:50:00.000-07:00

No. 1 Seeds

Since 2000, 31 out of 36 (86 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. 26 out of those 31 (84 percent), or 72 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Elite Eight.

No. 1 seeds have played No. 4 seeds 11 times, No. 5 seeds 14 times, No. 12 seeds 5 times, and played a No. 13 seed once in the Sweet Sixteen. They have won nine (82 percent) times against No. 4 seeds, 11 (79%) times against No. 5 seeds, and have won all six times in which they faced a No. 12 or No. 13 seed.

Overall in Sweet Sixteen games, No. 1 seeds have an average margin of victory of 7.16 points per game in their favor. Against only No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, this average margin is still in their advantage at 5.64 points per game.

No. 2 Seeds

No. 2 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen 19 times out of a possible 36 (53 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Elite Eight 15 (79 percent) of those times. This equates to 42 percent of the original 36 No. 2 seeds since 2000 making the Elite Eight.

No. 2 seeds have played No. 3 seeds 11 times, No. 6 seeds seven times, and a No. 11 seed one in the Sweet Sixteen. They have won eight (73 percent) times against No. 3 seeds, six (86%) times against No. 6 seeds, and won their only game against a No. 11 seed.

Overall, No. 2 seeds have had an average margin of victory of 6.53 points per game in their favor in Sweet Sixteen games. Against No. 3 seeds they win by 5.09 points per game on average, and against No. 6 seeds they win by 8.00 points per game.

No. 3 and No. 6 Seeds

There has been 15 times since 2000 that a No. 3 or No. 6 seed has been the lower seed in a Sweet Sixteen game, meaning that the No. 2 seed was upset in the first or second round in their side of the bracket. The No. 3 or No. 6 seed has won nine of these 15 (60 percent) games. No. 3 seeds have won seven of ten (70%) games against a higher seed in the Sweet Sixteen, while No. 6 seeds have only won two of their five (40%).

In addition, a No. 3 or No. 6 seed has been the higher seed in a Sweet Sixteen game 18 times since 2000. Since they were the higher seed, this means they had to be playing a No. 2 seed. The No. 3 or No. 6 seed has won four of these 18 (22 percent) games. No. 3 seeds have won three of 11 (27%) games against No. 2 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, while No. 6 seeds have won only one of their seven (14 percent).

No. 4 and No. 5 Seeds

There has been four times since 2000 that a No. 4 or No. 5 seed has been the lower seed in a Sweet Sixteen game, meaning that the No. 1 seed was upset in the second round in their side of the bracket. The No. 4 or No. 5 seed actually lost three of these four games. The only win came against a No. 9 seed, whereas all of the three losses came against No. 8 seeds.

In addition, a No. 4 or No. 5 seed has been the higher seed (played a No. 1 seed) in a Sweet Sixteen game 25 times since 2000. The No. 4 or No. 5 seed has won only five (20 percent) of these. No. 4 seeds have won two of 11 (18 percent) games against No. 1 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, while No. 5 seeds have won three of their 14 (21 percent).

Overall

Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in Sweet Sixteen games since 2000 (wins, losses, winning percentage):

Big 12: 13-5 (72 percent)
Big Ten: 12-7 (63 percent)
Pac 10: 10-9 (53 percent)
ACC: 9-10 (47 percent)
SEC: 7-10 (41 percent)
Big East: 10-16 (38 percent)
Mid-Majors: 10-14 (42 percent)
Small Conf.: 1-1 (50 percent)

Here the Mid-Major conferences include the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, WCC, CAA, Conference USA, Horizon League, MAC, WAC, and Mountain West. Small conferences include the Sun Belt and Southern Conference.

Note that there were a few Mid-Major conferences with very good Sweet Sixteen records (Atlantic Ten, Conference USA), and also a few with very bad records (Missouri Valley, Horizon, Mountain West).

Summary

On average, three of the four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight each year

If a No. 7, 8, 9, or 10 seed is able to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, then they also have a very good chance of advancing to the Elite Eight

No. 3, 4, 5, and 6 seeds have reached the Elite Eight at a surprisingly low rate

The Big 12 and Big Ten have fared very well in Sweet Sixteen games, while the SEC and Big East have fared poorly

Other Second Round Games

2009-03-06T11:33:00.000-08:00

I previously considered second round match-ups featuring No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. In this entry I consider all other second round NCAA Tournament games. If all goes well for the top seeds in the first round, this would be the No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs No. 5 match-ups. However, upsets in this part of the bracket are very prevalent.

No. 3 Seeds

Since 2000, 34 out of 36 (94 percent) No. 3 seeds have advanced to the second round. 21 out of those 34 (62 percent), or 58 percent of the original 36, have also advanced into the Sweet Sixteen. Out of the 34 second round games, 22 have come against No. 6 seeds. No. 3 seeds have won only 12/22 (55 percent) of these games, suggesting that No. 3 and No. 6 seeds are fairly even. The other 12 second round games have come against No. 11 seeds, where No. 3 seeds won nine (75 percent) times.

Overall in second round games, No. 3 seeds have an average margin of victory of 3.59 points per game in their favor. Against No. 6 seeds, this average margin is a mere 0.41 points per game in their favor, and is in their advantage by 9.42 points per game against No. 11 seeds.

No. 4 Seeds

No. 4 seeds have advanced to the second round 28 times out of a possible 36 (78 percent) since 2000. They then have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen 14 of those 28 (50 percent) times. This equates to 39 percent of the original 36 No. 4 seeds since 2000. Of their 28 second round games, 18 have come against No. 5 seeds. No. 4 seeds have won only seven (39 percent) of these games. The percentage is most likely so far below half because of a relatively low sample size, but nonetheless the No. 4 seeds appear to have no distinct advantage against No. 5 seeds. The other 10 second round games were against No. 12 seeds, where No. 4 seeds won seven (70 percent) of those games.

Overall, No. 4 seeds have had an average margin of victory of just 0.64 points per game in their favor in second round games. Against No. 5 seeds they lose by 0.28 points per game on average, and against No. 12 seeds they win by 2.3 points per game.

No. 5 Seeds

No. 5 seeds have made the second round of the NCAA Tournament 23 times out of a possible 36 (64 percent) since 2000. They were able to advance to the Sweet Sixteen 15 of those 23 times (65 percent), meaning 42 percent of the original No. 5 seeds were able to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Notice that this is higher than the 39 percent of No. 4 seeds that were able to make it that far. Of the 23 second round games, 18 came against No. 4 seeds, where the No. 5 seeds won 11 (61 percent) games. The other five games were all against No. 13 seeds, where No. 5 seeds won four (80 percent) games.

No. 5 Seeds have an average margin of victory in their second round games of 1.87 points per game in their favor. On average against No. 4 seeds they win by 0.28 points per game on average, and against No. 13 seeds they win by 7.6 points per game.

No. 6 Seeds

Since 2000, No. 6 seeds have reached the second round 24 of a possible 36 (67 percent) times. Of those 24 tries, No. 6 seeds were able to advance further to the Sweet Sixteen 12 (58 percent) times. This means that 33 percent of all No. 6 seeds since 2000 have reached the Sweet Sixteen. Of the 24 second round games featuring No. 6 seeds, 22 of them came against No. 3 seeds. No. 6 seeds won 10 (45 percent) of those games, and also won both of their games against No. 14 seeds in the second round.

No. 6 seeds have an average margin of victory of winning by 0.54 points per game in second round games. In games against No. 3 seeds, they have lost by 0.41 points per game, and they have won by 11 points per game against No. 14 seeds.

Overall

In other articles I have considered conference records by low seed and high seed. However, since the match-ups seem to be much more even in this group, I will consider cumulative conference records. Here is the breakdown of how each conference has fared in these second round games (wins, losses, winning percentage):

Pac-10: 10-3 (77 percent)
SEC: 10-5 (67 percent)
Big East: 15-10 (60 percent)
Big Ten: 9-8 (53 percent)
Big 12: 8-9 (47 percent)
ACC: 7-12 (37 percent)
Mid-Majors: 12-16 (43 percent)
Small Conf.: 1-9 (10 percent)

Here the Mid-Major conferences include the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, WCC, CAA, Conference USA, Horizon League, MAC, and Mountain West. Small conferences include the Sun Belt, America East, Big Sky, Big West, MAAC, Patriot, Southland, and Big South.

Note that the lone victory in these games for a small conference team was last year when Western Kentucky defeated San Diego. Western Kentucky was actually the favored team in this instance as a No. 12 seed playing a No. 13 seed.

Summary

No. 4 and No. 5 seeds have essentially equal chances at reaching the Sweet Sixteen
No. 3 and No. 6 seeds are fairly evenly matched, but No. 3 seeds have a much higher chance of winning their first round game, giving them a better chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen
The Pac 10 conference has fared exceptionally well in these second round games, while the ACC has done surprisingly poorly
Small Conference teams have done extremely poorly in these match-ups

Filling Out Your Bracket: No. 1 and No. 2 Seeds in the Second Round

2009-02-04T21:33:00.000-08:00

No. 1 and No. 2 seeds nearly always advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In fact, they have done so a combined 71/72 times since the 2000 season. While No. 1 seeds and No. 2 seeds are always very strong teams, sometimes there can be a large difference in ability between the two. Thus in this article they will be considered separately. However, the two seeds have very similar opponents in the second round. No. 1 seeds face either a No. 8 or No. 9 seed, while No. 2 seeds draw either a No. 7 or No. 10 seed. I will work off of the assumption that the teams earning the seed in this range have virtually interchangeable ability, thus I will also analyze these two match-ups as combined together.

No. 1 Seeds

No. 1 Seeds have lost their second round game five times out of 36 (14%) since 2000. Four of the five teams to have defeated No. 1 seeds in the second round were No. 8 seeds and only one was a No. 9 seed (UAB over Kentucky in 2004). The average margin of victory in these second round games is for the No. 1 seed to win by 10.47 points per game.

Three of the five No. 1 seeds to have been upset in the second round were from the Pac 10 Conference. Three of the five teams to get the upset victory had won their first round game by more than 10 points. This is significant when compared to the average margin of victory in 8/9 match-ups of 1.11 points per game (in favor of No. 8 seeds). Three of the five upset teams also went on to win at least one more game in the tournament. Wisconsin and North Carolina both reached the Final Four as No. 8 seeds in 2000, and Alabama reached the Elite Eight as a No. 8 seed in 2004.

No. 2 Seeds

No. 2 seeds have lost second round games 16 out of 35 (46%) times since 2000. This rate for upsets is astonishingly high and much more prevalent than for No. 1 seeds in the second round. Nearly two of the four No. 2 seeds lose in the second round every tournament. The average margin of victory in these second round games is for the No. 2 seed to win by 2.57 points per game.

Eight of the 15 teams to upset a No. 2 seed in the second round this decade have been No. 7 seeds and seven have been No. 10 seeds. Six of the 15 teams went on to win their next game to advance to the Elite Eight, but none were able to make the Final Four. No. 7 or No. 10 seeds that were successful in upsetting No. 2 seeds also tended to have won their first round games by significant margins, averaging a 9.31 point per game victory margin.

No. 1 and No. 2 Seeds Combined

The following shows how each power conference has fared as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed since 2000:

Big 12: 12-0 (100 percent)

Pac 10: 8-3 (73 percent)

ACC: 10-4 (71 percent)

Big Ten: 5-2 (71 percent)

Big East: 6-5 (55 percent)

SEC: 5-5 (50 percent)

Other: 4-2 (66 percent)

Even though the Big 12 Conference has had the second most games this decade as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the second round, they have not lost in 12 opportunities. The Pac 10, ACC, and Big Ten all have had very good success as No. 1 or No. 2 seeds in the second round as well, while the Big East and SEC have each been upset fairly often in these games. Non-power conference have faired reasonably well as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds as well.

Now to show how the conferences have fared in upsetting No. 1 or No. 2 seeds in the second round since 2000:

Big East: 4-4 (50 percent)

Big Ten: 3-7 (30 percent)

ACC: 2-5 (29 percent)

SEC: 2-7 (22 percent)

Pac 10: 1-4 (20 percent)

Big 12: 0-5 (0 percent)

Other: 9-18 (33 percent)

The only conference (the Big 12) not to have been upset in these games is also the only conference not to have scored any upsets in these games. The power conferences appear to be fairly even in upsetting No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the second round, with the exception of the Big 12 and the Big East, which has found the most success in this upset role. Non-power conferences have been mores successful than most of the power conferences in getting upset wins.

Summary

No. 2 seeds get upset a lot in the second and much more often than No. 1 seeds

Teams that are able to beat No. 1 or No. 2 seeds in the second round often had big wins in the first round

The Big 12 Conference has never had a team upset in the second round as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, and has also never had a team beat a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the second round as a higher seed

Non-power conference teams appear just as likely to advance as lower seeds and more likely to get upsets as higher seeds in these second round games

The Big East has had the most success upsetting No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the second round, while the SEC and Big East have been upset the most frequently in the second round as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds

Filling Out Your Bracket: Tough First Round Picks

2009-01-16T13:41:00.000-08:00

The hardest single games to pick correctly in the NCAA Tournament are, not surprisingly, the games pitting teams of closest numerical seed against each other. For first round games, this means the match-ups of No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, No. 7 and No. 10 seeds, and No. 6 and No. 11 seeds.

While these games are often the toughest to pick correctly, the bright side is that they often do not matter as much. Because the winner of these games usually must play a No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seed in the second round, most of the teams that are able to advance past the first round do not make it much further.

Of course there are plenty of exceptions. One of the most notable occurred very recently in 2006, when George Mason advanced all the way to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed, the highest number seed out of the six in consideration.

Clearly, as is the case with picking all tournament games, a wrong pick can be deadly.

No. 6 seeds vs No. 11 seeds

Since the 2000 NCAA Tournament, at least one No. 11 seed has advanced to the second round every year except one (2004). No. 11 seeds have defeated No. 6 seeds 12 times out of 36 (percent). The average margin in these games is for the No. 6 seed to win by 3.67 points.

No. 7 seeds vs. No. 10 seeds

Like the previous match-up, there has been at least one No. 10 seed to advance to the six round in every NCAA Tournament this decade except in 2006. No. 10 seeds have defeated No. 7 seeds 12 out of 36 times (33 percent), again exactly the same as the previous match-up.

Notice that six of the 12 (50 percent) No. 10 seeds that made it out of the first round also won their second round games. In fact, two of the 12 (16.7 percent) went to the Elite Eight. In comparison, only eight out of the 24 (percent) No. 7 seeds that won their first round game also won their second. Four of those 24 (16.7 percent) went to the Elite Eight.

The average margin in this first round match-up is for the No. 7 seed to win by 4.56 points. Notice that this is a larger margin of victory than in the match-up of a No. 6 seed and No. 11 seed.

Combined Match-ups: 6/11 and 7/10 games

Since the statistics from the two previous match-ups are so eerily similar, it makes sense to combine them for comparison. The easiest way to perform comparisons is to separate teams by conferences. For the purposes of this article, note that the power conferences are the ACC, Big East, Big 10, SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10. The mid-major conferences are the Atlantic 10, CAA, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, WAC, MAC, Mountain West, Horizon, and West Coast. All other conferences are considered to be small conferences.

It should be no surprise that most teams in the position of a No. 6 or No. 7 seed are from power conferences. Here is a breakdown of how each power conference has fared in these two types of first round match-ups since 2000 (conference, record, win percentage):

ACC: 8-2 (80 percent)
Big East: 9-3 (75 percent)
Big 10: 10-4 (71 percent)
SEC: 3-2 (60 percent)
Big 12: 5-4 (56 percent)
Pac 10: 3-3 (50 percent)

As a whole, power conference teams have won 68 percent (38/56) of their games as No. 6 and No. 7 seeds in the first round since 2000, while mid-major teams have won at a 62.5% (10/16) clip. There have been no small conference teams that have received No. 6 or No. 7 seeds since 2000.

Teams that are seeded No. 10 or No. 11 are a much more diverse group. The majority actually comes from the most successful mid-major conferences. Here is an analysis of conference types in pulling upsets in these match-ups (category, record, win percent):

Power Conferences: 8-18 (31 percent)
Mid-Major Conferences: 14-27 (34 percent)
Small Conferences: 2-3 (40 percent)

The chances of an upset appear fairly even no matter what level of conference a team is from. However, further analysis reveals a little more. Four of the nine mid-major conferences have appeared exceptionally often as No. 10 or No. 11 seeds in this time frame.

These are the Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conferences. It is accurate to say these are considered the elite mid-major conferences. If the mid-major conferences are broken down like this, the elite mid-major conferences win these match-ups only 18.5 percent (5/27) of the time, while non-elite mid-major conference win at an astonishing 64 percent (9/14) clip.

It is also worth noting that ignoring the Ivy League, which seems to be far over-rated in the seeding process this decade, small conference teams are 2-1 this decade as No. 10 or No. 11 seeds.

No. 8 seeds vs No. 9 seeds

Seed-wise, these are the most even match-ups of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Accordingly, they have also been historically the most even (and therefore most difficult to predict).

No. 9 seeds have won 17/36 (47.2 percent) of games against No. 8 seeds since 2000. The average margin in these games is very slim; for the No. 8 seed to win by 1.11 points.

No matter who wins, neither of these seeds fair very well in the second round. Only one out of 17 (6 percent) of No. 9 seeds that won their first game also won their second. Only four out of 19 (21 percent) of No. 8 seeds were able to do the same. However, three of these No. 8 seeds went to the Elite Eight and two made it all the way to the Final Four.

Since No. 8 seeds and No. 9 seeds are so even in this match-up, the conference record breakdown does not distinguish between high and low seed. Here are the records for conferences in these games that have had at least five appearances since 2000 (conference, record, win percent):

Big 12: 5-2 (71 percent)
Big 10: 5-3 (62.5 percent)
Mountain West: 3-2 (60 percent)
Atlantic 10: 4-3 (57 percent)
SEC: 6-5 (54.5 percent)
Pac 10: 4-7 (36 percent)
Big East: 2-6 (25 percent)

Overall, power conference teams have won 48 percent (23/48) of their games in this match-up since 2000, while mid-major conference teams have won 52 percent (11/21) and small conference teams have won 67 percent (2/3).

Summary

No. 10 and No. 11 seeds each advance to the second round 1/3 of the time
Power conference teams are more likely to win as No. 6 or No. 7 seeds
Teams from low level mid-major conferences or small conferences are more likely to win as No. 10 or No. 11 seeds
No. 8 seeds and No. 9 seeds have essentially equal chances of winning in the first round
The Big 12 and Big 10 have been very successful in 8/9 match-ups, while the Pac 10 and Big East have been particularly bad
Teams from gradually lesser conferences seem to have better odds in 8/9 match-ups

Filling Out Your Bracket: Make or Break First Round Picks

2009-01-09T18:57:00.000-08:00

The most tricky and often most crucial games to pick in the first round of the NCAA Tournament are No. 4 seed vs. No. 13 seed and the No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 seed match-ups.
No. 4 and No. 5 seeds have shown the ability to reach the Final Four, while No. 12 and No. 13 seeds have also been able to make the Sweet Sixteen.

In the past nine NCAA tournaments, five teams have made the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 12 or No. 13 seed, and one has even reached the Elite Eight. In the same time period, three teams have reached the Final Four as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, and two of those teams reached the Championship Game.

One of the best examples of how crucial these match-ups can be came in 2000. No. 5-seeded Florida was lucky to survive No. 12-seeded Butler in the first round by a score of 69-68, and then the Gators proceeded to advance all the way to the Championship Game.

In the 72 games played in these first round pairings since 2000, the higher seeded team has won 21 times (29% of the time). Since there are eight of these games in each NCAA Tournament’s first round, on average there are over two upsets per year in these games.

Further, many of these games are very close regardless of who wins. The average margin in both of these first round match-ups is 6.94 points in favor of the lower-seeded team.

It is also true that No. 12 seeds do have significantly better success against No. 5 seeds than No. 13 seeds do against No. 4 seeds. No. 12 seeds have won 13 of 36 (36%) games against No. 5 seeds while No. 13 seeds have won 8 of 36 (22%) of games against No. 4 seeds. The average margin in the 5/12 match-up is 5.22 points in favor of the No. 5 seed, and the average margin in the 4/13 match-up is 8.67 points in favor of the No. 4 seed.

There are several factors that can help in trying to pick the right underdogs in these games.

One of the most important is experience. 10 of the 21 high-seeded teams to win were in at least their second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, and many had even more tournament experience than that. Also many of the low-seeded teams to get upset in the first round had relatively little tournament experience.

Another thing to look for is conference tendencies. Most No. 4 seeds and No. 5 seeds are power conference teams, but not always. There have been five teams from non-power conference seed No. 4 or No. 5 in this decade, and they are a mere 2-3 in these first round match-ups. All of these games have been against other non-power conference opponents.

Conversely, No. 12 and No. 13 seeds are usually non-power conference teams, but not always. Five power conference teams have been seeded No. 12 or No. 13 in this decade, and they an impressive 3-2 in these first round games, all coming against power conference opponents.

Further, some power conference teams have held up better than others in playing as the favored team in these games. The Big Ten and Pac 10 have been very successful as No. 4 or No. 5 seeds, while the SEC has been upset more than their fair share.

Here are the records for each of the power conference’s as No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the first round since 2000: (conference, record, winning percentage)

Big Ten: 10-2 (83%)

Pac 10: 5-1 (83%)

Big East: 14-5 (74%)

ACC: 8-3 (73%)

Big 12: 4-2 (67%)

SEC: 8-5 (62%)

Similary, some non-power conferences have had much more success in pulling off upsets in these first round games than others. The Mountain West conference has had surprisingly very little success while the Missouri Valley, West Coast, and Metro Atlantic Athletic Conferences have had good records as No. 12 and No. 13 seeds in the first round.

Here are the records for each non-power conference in first round games as No. 12 and No. 13 seeds since 2000 (conference, record, winning percentage):

Missouri Valley: 3-1 (75%)

WCC: 2-1 (67%)

MAAC: 2-1 (67%)

America East: 1-1 (50%)

Big Sky: 1-1 (50%)

WAC: 2-3 (40%)

Horizon: 2-4 (33%)

MAC: 1-2 (33%)

Sun Belt: 1-3 (25%)

Big West: 1-3 (25%)

CAA: 1-5 (17%)

Mountain West: 1-9 (10%)

Big South: 0-1 (0%)

Patriot: 0-1 (0%)

Summit: 0-1 (0%)

Ivy: 0-2 (0%)

Southern: 0-3 (0%)

Atlantic Ten: 0-3 (0%)

Ohio Valley: 0-4 (0%)

Teams from conferences typically considered Mid-Major Conference fare slightly better than teams from conferences typically considered small conferences.

Mid-Major Conferences (Atlantic Ten, CAA, Horizon, MAC, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, WAC, WCC) are 12-28 (30%) as No. 12 and No. 13 seeds in the first round. Small Conferences (America East, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, MAAC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Summit, Sun Belt) are 6-21 (22%) as No. 12 and No. 13 seeds in the first round.

Summary

Aim for two No. 12 and No. 13 seeds to advance to the second round, but be cautious of picking against No. 4 and No. 5 seeds that could go deep in the tournament

Favored teams from non-power conferences are more likely to be upset and Underdog teams from power conferences are more likely to post an upset victory

Underdog teams with NCAA Tournament experience are especially dangerous, while favored teams without much tournament experience are especially vulnerable

Low seeded teams from the Big Ten and Pac Ten are rarely upset in these match-ups, while low seeded teams from the SEC may be the most vulnerable of the power conference teams

High seeded teams from the Mountain West, Atlantic Ten, and Ohio Valley Conferences have been highly unsuccessful in these games, while teams from the Missouri Valley, MAAC, and West Coast Conferences have been highly successful

Filling Out Your Bracket: Cinderellas in the Elite Eight and Beyond

2008-12-03T17:26:00.000-08:00

There is no better satisfaction than correctly picking an underdog in the NCAA tournament. Most high-seeded teams that we may pick to win usually one win one or two games at most in the tournament. But there are some notable exceptions, and picking a Cinderella to go deep into the tournament correctly could take you to the top of your bracket pool.

Since 2000 there have been five double-digit seeds that have qualified for the Elite Eight. Only one of those teams has moved on to the Final Four, a No. 11 seed. Two No. 8 seeds have also reached the Final Four in the same time period.

In 2000, No. 8-seeded Wisconsin and No. 8-seeded North Carolina made it to the Final Four.
No. 11-seeded Temple reached the Elite Eight in 2001.
No. 12-seeded Missouri and No. 10-seeded Kent State qualified for the Elite Eight in 2002.
In 2006, No. 11-seeded George Mason made it all the way to the Final Four.
In 2008, No. 10-seeded Davidson advanced to the Elite Eight.

There are some interesting observations that can be made from these Cinderellas:

Three of the seven Cinderellas listed came from power conferences, and another three of them came from fairly prestigious mid-major conferences. Only Davidson, out of the Big South, had success in the NCAA tournament from a small conference.

Five of the seven teams advanced as far as they did by playing one game against another underdog team, where underdog team means any team other than the lowest possible seed they could have played. Interesting enough, each of these five teams had exactly one game like this. The only two teams to earn all of their wins against the lowest possible seeds were Kent State in 2002 and Davidson in 2008.

The common view that underdogs need senior leadership to advance appears to be inaccurate. While all seven Cinderellas had at least one senior that was a major contributor, four of the seven had only one contributing senior.

Kent State in 2002, George Mason in 2006, and Davidson in 2008 were the only teams with more than one contributing senior. It is interesting, yet is likely coincidence, that these teams are the three most recent Cinderellas in the list. Perhaps multiple seniors has become more of a necessity for potential Cinderellas in very recent years.

Another common trend among the seven Cinderellas was defense. Five of the seven teams allowed 64 points per game or less over the course of the season. The two exceptions were North Carolina in 2000 and Missouri in 2002, both power conference teams.

Finally, scoring balance was a key attribute for most of the Cinderellas. Five of the seven teams had at least three players averaging over 10 points per game on the season. George Mason in 2006 and Temple in 2002 had five players averaging over 10 points per game. The two exceptions were Wisconsin in 2000 and Davidson in 2008.

Wisconsin had an outstanding defense (only allowed 55.8 points per game on the season) so they were able to get away with only one player averaging above 10 points per game. Davidson had one player (Stephen Curry) averaging over 25 points per game, so they were able to have success with only two players averaging over 10 points per game.

In summary, if you are risky enough to try to pick a Cinderella team to advance to the Elite Eight, remember these things:

Most underdogs come from distinguished conferences.
Cinderellas very rarely make it all the way to the Final Four.
If there is a potential for other upsets in a high-seeded team’s side of the bracket, then they have a better chance of advancing further.
Multiple seniors may not be as important for Cinderellas, but teams should have at least one key senior contributor.
Most Cinderella teams have a strong defense and good scoring balance.

Seeds in the Final Four

2008-11-24T12:40:00.001-08:00

No. 1 Seeds

The 2008 NCAA tournament provided the first Final Four consisting of all No. 1 seeds since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (and later 65 teams).

Assuming teams are seeded accurately, the No. 1seeds are the most likely to advance from the Final Four in each region. Clearly this is not good to go off of when filling out your bracket though, as the chance of all four No. 1 seeds advancing is very slim.

Since 2000, a No. 1 seed has been in the Final Four for every NCAA tournament except one year. The exception was in 2006, when three No. 1 seeds all lost in the Elite Eight.

In five of the last nine NCAA tournaments, there have been at least two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. The only time there were actually more than two was this past season, when there were four.

Out of the 36 teams that have qualified for the Final Four since 2000, 15 (42 percent) of them have been No. 1 seeds.

No. 2 Seeds

Should a No. 1 seed in a region fall, the next most likely candidate for the Final Four is the No. 2 seed.

There has been at least one No. 2 seed in six of the past nine Final Fours, and there have been two No. 2 seeds to advance to the semifinal round in two of the years.

Overall, eight (22 percent) of the 36 teams to make the Final Four since 2000 have been No. 2 seeds.

Overall Distribution

Here are the complete percentages for each respective seed qualifying for the Final Four since 2000.

No. 1 seeds: 42 percent

No. 2 seeds: 22 percent

No. 3 seeds: 14 percent

No. 4 seeds: 6 percent

No. 5 seeds: 8 percent

No. 6 seeds: 0 percent

No. 7 seeds: 0 percent

No. 8 seeds: 6 percent

No. 9 seeds: 0 percent

No. 10 seeds: 0 percent

No. 11 seeds: 3 percent

No. 12 seeds: 0 percent

No. 13 seeds: 0 percent

No. 14 seeds: 0 percent

No. 15 seeds: 0 percent

No. 16 seeds: 0 percent

In addition, no team seeded higher than 11 has ever qualified for the Final Four since the 1985 expansion. Seed Nos. 7, 9, and 10 have also never reached the Final Four since 1985.

Total Seed Number in the Final Four

A good way to assess the distribution of seeds that appear in the Final Four is to look at the sum of the seed numbers that reach the Final Four. The smallest possible seed number is four, which is the case only if all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four.

Over the last nine seasons, the total seed number has been as low as four last season and as high as 22 in 2000. The average total seed number has been 10.7, and we can be 95 percent confident that the overall average total seed number for all seasons is between six and 15.

Suggestion Summary

Take either one or two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.

Take one No. 2 seed in your Final Four.

Make sure your total seed number isn’t too low or too high (aim for around 10).

Don’t take any No. 7, 9, or 10 seeds in your Final Four.

Seeds in the Final Four

2008-11-24T12:40:00.000-08:00

No. 1 Seeds

The 2008 NCAA tournament provided the first Final Four consisting of all No. 1 seeds since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (and later 65 teams).

Since 2000, a No. 1 seed has been in the Final Four for every NCAA tournament except one year. The exception was in 2006, when three No. 1 seeds all lost in the Elite Eight.

In five of the last nine NCAA tournaments, there have been at least two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. The only time there were actually more than two was this past season, when there were four.

Out of the 36 teams that have qualified for the Final Four since 2000, 15 (42 percent) of them have been No. 1 seeds.

No. 2 Seeds

Should a No. 1 seed in a region fall, the next most likely candidate for the Final Four is the No. 2 seed.

There has been at least one No. 2 seed in six of the past nine Final Fours, and there have been two No. 2 seeds to advance to the semifinal round in two of the years.

Overall, eight (22 percent) of the 36 teams to make the Final Four since 2000 have been No. 2 seeds.

Overall Distribution

Here are the complete percentages for each respective seed qualifying for the Final Four since 2000.

No. 1 seeds: 42 percent

No. 2 seeds: 22 percent

No. 3 seeds: 14 percent

No. 4 seeds: 6 percent

No. 5 seeds: 8 percent

No. 6 seeds: 0 percent

No. 7 seeds: 0 percent

No. 8 seeds: 6 percent

No. 9 seeds: 0 percent

No. 10 seeds: 0 percent

No. 11 seeds: 3 percent

No. 12 seeds: 0 percent

No. 13 seeds: 0 percent

No. 14 seeds: 0 percent

No. 15 seeds: 0 percent

No. 16 seeds: 0 percent

In addition, no team seeded higher than 11 has ever qualified for the Final Four since the 1985 expansion. Seed Nos. 7, 9, and 10 have also never reached the Final Four since 1985.

Total Seed Number in the Final Four

Suggestion Summary

Take either one or two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four.

Take one No. 2 seed in your Final Four.

Make sure your total seed number isn’t too low or too high (aim for around 10).

Don’t take any No. 7, 9, or 10 seeds in your Final Four.

Filling Out Your Bracket: Use Conference Tendencies for Final Four Teams

2008-11-05T12:31:00.001-08:00

In the nine NCAA tournaments played in the current decade, the six major conferences have accounted for 34 of the 36 Final Four teams. The only two teams to qualify for the Final Four outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Big 12, and Pac-10 were George Mason from the CAA in 2006 and Memphis from Conference USA in 2008.

So when you are filling out your bracket for March Madness, the safest bet is to have all of your Final Four teams from the top six conferences.

Furthermore, since the 2000 NCAA tournament, the following are the average number of teams each major conference has placed in the Final Four per year.

1) ACC: .889

2) Big Ten: .778

3) Big 12: .667

4) Big East: .556

T-5) SEC: .444

T-5) Pac-10: .444

An ACC team has been in the Final Four in six of the nine NCAA tournaments this decade.

The Big East averages 6.89 teams making the tournament each year during the 2000s, whereas no other conference averages more than 5.44 qualifying teams. However, the Big East does not have the highest number of teams qualifying for the Final Four on average.

Therefore, quantity does not imply quality. Just because a conference has more teams in the NCAA tournament does not mean that conference will have more teams in the Final Four.

Also notice that seven of the last nine Final Fours have featured two teams from one conference, and one of those even featured two teams from two conferences. In 2003 the Big 12 (Kansas and Texas) and the Big East (Syracuse and Marquette) both had two teams in the Final Four.

No conference has ever had more than three Final Four representatives in one season, at least in this decade.

Out of the eight different times a conference has had two teams in the Final Four this decade, it has been the ACC twice, the Big Ten twice, the Big 12 twice, the Big East once, and the SEC once.

However, both of the two most recent NCAA tournaments had four teams from four different conferences. This is most likely coincidence, but it does provide some question as to whether this trend of multiple teams from one conference being in the Final Four is changing.

In summary, for when you are picking your Final Four teams:

Pick only teams from the six major conferences.
Pick at least one ACC team.
The four conferences most commonly represented in the Final Four, in order from most to least, are the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East.
Don’t pick teams from a specific conference just because that conference has a lot of teams in the tournament.
Know that two teams from the same conference usually make the Final Four, but be careful when choosing which conference.

Memphis Basketball Looks to Bounce Back with Star Recruit

2008-09-16T15:15:00.000-07:00

The collapse of the Memphis Tigers at the end of regulation and overtime in last year’s National Championship game will not soon be forgotten. The Tigers missed four out of five free throws at the end of the game and surrendered a miraculous, buzzer-beater three-pointer from Kansas’ Russell Robinson that sent the game to overtime.

Perhaps worse than the emotional letdown of the championship game, Memphis also lost their two best players to the NBA draft. Leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts and freshman sensation point guard Derrick Rose both will no longer be able to play with the team this season. Combined, these two players accounted for an average of 33 points per game last season.

While Memphis does have a plethora of role players returning from last year’s team that will look to make a larger impact, the Tigers look with urgency to their incoming recruiting class to provide immediate results. The highlight of that recruiting class is undoubtedly Tyreke Evans.

Tyreke Evans is the No. 6 rated recruit for this year’s college basketball freshman class according to Rivals.com. At American Christian High School in Aston, Pennsylvania, Evans excelled at the point guard position, earning the No. 3 point guard rating from Rivals.com.

However, Memphis will not be giving Evans the direct burden of filling in the shoes of this year’s No.1 NBA draft pick, Derrick Rose. The team has announced the veteran Willie Kemp will take over as point guard, and Tyreke will shift to shooting guard. In many ways though, Evans is still expected to replace Rose.

Evans and Rose have many similarities, but it is mostly Evans’ hype coming out of high school that will draw him comparisons to the former freshman phenom.

While Evans is ranked as the No. 6 recruit in his class, Derrick Rose was the No. 3 rated recruit in the freshman class of 2007. Rose was also the No. 1 rated point guard, while Evans ranks No. 3.

Both Evans and Rose have very good size for the guard position. Evans is 6’5 while Rose is slightly shorter at 6’4.

They both also come from very similar backgrounds. Tyreke Evans is from Chester, PA, a tough area in Philadelphia, while Derrick Rose is from the south side of Chicago.

When his incredible basketball talent began to show, Rose’s mother made sure that Derrick’s older brother looked out for him to keep him safe and out of trouble during High School. Tyreke Evans had a very similar situation, as his older brothers protected him and even sent him to a private high school away from the streets of Philly.

In his senior year of high school, Evans averaged 29 points per game. Rose averaged fewer points at 25.2 per game in his senior season, but did lead his team to their second straight state title.

Both stars have the rare ability to make the game look very easy. They both are extremely quick and very talented at driving the ball to the basket and finishing strong.

There is one more thing that both Rose and Evans have in common that is extremely important. Derrick Rose only played one year at Memphis before leaving for the NBA, and nobody would be surprised if Tyreke Evans did the exact same thing.

Evans has already been projected to be the No. 10 overall pick and next year’s draft, and has said he hopes that his time on Memphis helps to prepare him for the NBA.

Ever since the rule was set that players must be one year removed from High School to be eligible for the NBA, the one-and-done college basketball player has become extremely common. In 2006, six of the top seven ranked players (again according to Rivals.com) out of high school left for the NBA after their freshman season. Last year, nine of the top ten ranked players made the same jump to the NBA after just one year in college.

Being the No. 6 rated recruit for this year’s class, if the trend continues then the chances of Tyreke Evans bolting for the NBA after one year at Memphis are very high.

In fact, it is fairly simple to create a logistic regression statistical model to predict the probability of Evans going one-and-done. Thus, I used data from the last two seasons’ freshman classes to do just that. I used the top 30 ranked recruits for the freshman class of 2006 and the top 30 ranked recruits from last year.

I found a model based solely off of the rankings from Rivals.com to be an extremely good predictor for whether or not the player goes to the NBA after one season. Based off of this model, which only takes into account his No. 6 ranking, Tyreke Evans is given a 77.4% chance of turning professional after this season.

Additionally, I came up with another model that includes a measure for success in a player’s first year of college. I chose to quantify this success in terms of points scored per game. Based off of this model, the chance of Evans going to the NBA after his freshman year depends on how well he does this season. To give an idea, if Evans averages 10 points per game this season, his probability of going to the NBA then drops to 52%. If Evans averages 20 points per game, then his probability of going to the NBA goes up to 92.5%.

It should be noted that there is not a lot of data available to use for this study since the rule has only been in place for two years. The probabilities mentioned assume that the trends from the previous two years will hold this season as well.

It should also be noted that when I say leaving for the NBA after one season, I mean that a player fails to return to his college team the next season for the main reason of playing in the NBA. Players that “tested the waters” in the NBA and then returned to their college teams were not considered to be one-and-done. Also, players that left their teams for reasons other than the NBA (academics, etc.) were not considered to be one-and-done either.

Clearly, Memphis fans should be more immediately concerned about the productivity from Evans for this season rather than if he will be around beyond that, but it certainly makes it more difficult for Memphis (or any other team) to maintain a dominant program if its star players only play for one season.

Tyreke Evans gives the Memphis program a lot to be excited about for this season, even if he does not stay a Tiger beyond that. For Memphis to have another chance at a national title this season, Evans will have to live up to his hype. Just like Derrick Rose before him.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part XI

2008-09-15T11:02:00.000-07:00

This is the eleventh and final part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. This is a summary of the previous ten articles, and allows you to see the rankings all in one spot. However, it does not have the explanation and detail of the earlier articles.

My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Conferences:

Here are conferences, in order of rank, along with their average point totals:

1. ACC – 435.00
2. Big Ten – 399.91
3. Big East – 366.81
4. SEC – 338.42
5. Big 12 – 321.67
6. Pac 10 – 280.20
7. Atlantic 10 – 148.71
8. Mountain West – 148.33
9. Conference USA – 106.83
10. West Cost Conference – 72.50
11. Missouri Valley – 68.60
12. Horizon – 54.00
13. WAC – 45.11
14. MAC – 38.00
15. Sun Belt – 33.54
16. CAA – 30.17
17. Patriot League – 24.63
T-18. MAAC – 18.00
T-18. Ivy League – 18.00
20. Southern – 16.36
21. Big Sky – 14.44
22. Big West – 13.33
23. Ohio Valley – 10.18
24. MEAC – 9.73
25. Big South – 7.63
26. SWAC – 7.50
27. America East – 5.78
28. Southland – 5.33
29. Atlantic Sun – 4.67
30. Northeast – 3.64
31. Summit – 1.20
32. Independents – 0.00

Top 50 Teams:

Here are the top 50 teams, listed in order with cumulative point totals over the past 24 seasons (rank, team, ESPN rank, point total)

1. Duke (1) – 1,135
2. North Carolina (3) – 1,106
3. Kansas (2) – 1,076
4. Kentucky (4) – 978
5. Arizona (5) – 749
6. UCLA (7) – 731
7. Connecticut (6) – 724
8. Syracuse (9) – 713
9. Georgetown (T-10) – 690
10. Michigan State (T-10) – 655
11. Louisville (T-14) – 637
12. Texas (18) – 632
13. Illinois (23) – 616
14. Maryland (28) – 601
15. Indiana (13) – 587
16. Oklahoma (12) – 576
17. Arkansas (T-14) – 563
18. Purdue (29) – 546
19. Temple (20) – 538
20. Oklahoma State (32) – 506
21. Cincinnati (19) – 504
22. Florida (21) – 500
23. Alabama (T-35) – 484
24. Michigan (22) – 475
25. Stanford (25) – 466
26. Memphis (T-14) – 460
27. UNLV (8) – 453
28. Utah (24) – 448
29. Georgia Tech (33) – 446
30. Ohio State (27) – 440
31. Villanova (T-30) – 425
32. Xavier (17) – 418
33. Wake Forest (T-37) – 416
34. Iowa (49) – 404
T-35. Seton Hall (51) – 378
T-35. Pittsburgh (T-43) – 378
T-37. Wisconsin (T-43) – 364
T-37. Boston College (T-70) – 364
39. North Carolina State (52) – 358
40. St. John’s (T-35) – 356
41. Gonzaga (26) – 318
42. Missouri (T-37) – 316
43. LSU (T-40) – 314
44. Auburn (T-90) – 310
45. Iowa State (T-57) – 304
46. Tulsa (39) – 302
T-47. Virginia (T-70) – 278
T-47. Notre Dame (T-86) – 278
49. Mississippi State (T-86) – 252
50. West Virginia (67) – 248

Summary:

If you compare my rankings to the ESPN rankings, I think it is quite clear that my simplistic scoring method was very comparable to the more complicated ESPN method. In fact, I believe my scoring system has corrected for the questionable areas in the ESPN rankings.

The weaker teams that were ranked highly in ESPN’s rankings because of playing against weaker competition are not ranked as highly in my version. As a result, the above average teams in the major conferences are all ranked more favorably in my rankings because they were pushed behind small conference teams in ESPN’s version.

Looking at the team rankings, most of the large rank differences come from the teams from weaker conferences (UNLV, Gonzaga, Tulsa, etc.) and from the more average teams in major conferences (Auburn, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Boston College, etc.).

Please look back to my previous articles in this series for more detail on the teams and conferences.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part X

2008-09-14T18:52:00.000-07:00

This is the tenth and second to last part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil the top conferences and top overall teams in the rankings. The eleventh and final part in the series will be released tomorrow, and will be a brief summary and consolidation of my previous articles.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

3) Big East – Average Point Total: 366.81

1) Connecticut – 724 (7, 6)
2) Syracuse – 713 (8, 9)
3) Georgetown – 690 (9, T-10)
4) Louisville – 637 (11, T-14)
5) Cincinnati – 504 (21, 19)
6) Villanova – 425 (31, T-30)
T-7) Seton Hall – 378 (T-35, 51)
T-7) Pittsburgh – 378 (T-35, T-43)
9) St. John’s – 356 (40, T-35)
10) Notre Dame – 278 (T-47, T-86)
11) West Virginia – 248 (50, 67)
12) Depaul – 210 (T-54, 95)
13) Marquette – 190 (58, T-61)
14) Providence – 130 (T-73, T-111)
T-15) South Florida – 4 (T-191, T-229)
T-15) Rutgers – 4 (T-191, T-225)

The Big East, with the help of its recently added teams, is the third ranked conference in the last 24 seasons. The Big East boasts eleven top 50 programs, which is by far the most of any conference (the Big East also has more teams than most conferences).

The race for the top spot in the conference was very close, as the top four teams were all within ranked overall within five spots of each other. UConn grabbed the top spot with the seventh overall rank, Syracuse was second in the Big East and eighth overall, Georgetown came next at ninth overall, and Louisville finished fourth in the Big East but eleventh overall.

The Big East has earned five national championships since 1985. Villanova has one (1985), Louisville has one (1986), Syracuse has one (2003), and Connecticut has two (1999 and 2004).

Nine teams in the Big East have reached at least the Final Four in the last 24 seasons (UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Marquette).

The main visible negative for this conference is the bottom teams. Both South Florida and Rutgers have been very poor basketball programs in this time period. Neither has a tournament victory, and they have only two tournament appearances each.

2) Big 10 – Average Point Total: 399.91

1) Michigan State – 655 (10, T-10)
2) Illinois – 616 (13, 23)
3) Indiana – 587 (15, 13)
4) Purdue – 546 (18, 29)
5) Michigan – 475 (24, 22)
6) Ohio State – 440 (30, 27)
7) Iowa – 404 (34, 49)
8) Wisconsin – 364 (T-37, T-43)
9) Minnesota – 226 (52, 68)
10) Penn State – 86 (T-96, T-185)
11) Northwestern – 0 (T-273, T-290)

The Big East may have the highest number of teams in the top 50, but the Big Ten has the highest proportion of teams within the top 50, helping it to be the second ranked conference in the last 24 seasons. The Big Ten has eight of its eleven teams ranked inside the top 50 (actually inside the top 37).

Michigan State is the pride of the conference and is ranked tenth in the overall rankings. Illinois and Indiana were the only teams within 100 points of the Spartans.

The Big Ten has three national championships to its credit since 1985. Indiana has one (1987), Michigan has one (1989), and Michigan State has one (2000).

Seven Big Ten teams have reached at least the Final Four in the last 24 seasons (Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota).

The separation between the Big Ten and the top ranked conference comes from the Big Ten’s lack of a top overall team and Northwestern.

Michigan State is the highest ranked overall team in the Big Ten, and they only scored high enough for tenth overall.

Northwestern, at the bottom of the Big Ten rankings, has a score of zero points. They are the only team in any of the six major conferences to not have any tournament appearances in the last 24 seasons. They weigh down the Big Ten average point total significantly.

1) ACC – Average Score: 435.00

1) Duke – 1,135 (1, 1)
2) North Carolina – 1,106 (2, 3)
3) Maryland – 601 (14, 28)
4) Georgia Tech – 446 (29, 33)
5) Wake Forest – 416 (33, T-37)
6) Boston College – 364 (T-37, T-70)
7) North Carolina State – 358 (39, 52)
8) Virginia – 278 (T-47, T-70)
9) Florida State – 180 (T-59, 128)
10) Clemson – 142 (71, T-111)
11) Miami – 122 (T-78, T-145)
12) Virginia Tech – 72 (T-102, T-210)

The ACC is the No. 1 ranked conference in the last 24 seasons. It has not only the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams overall (Duke and North Carolina), but also has eight top 50 teams.

Also, the strength of the bottom part of the ACC is much better than other conferences. This is the only conference where every team has multiple tournament victories. The 72 points for Virginia Tech, ranked last in the conference, is by far more points than any other conference’s last ranked team. The previous high point total for a last place team in a conference was 8.

The ACC has six national championships to its credit since 1985. Duke has three (1991, 1992, and 2001), North Carolina has tw0 (1993 and 2005), and Maryland has one (2002).

Surprising, only four teams in the ACC have reached the Final Four in this time period. Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, and Georgia Tech are the only teams that have done so.

In addition, it should be noted that despite the ACC’s huge advantage over any other conference in average point total, that the newest addition to the ACC have hurt the conference’s prestige. Miami and Virginia Tech are the last two rated teams in the conference and Boston College is only at No. 6.

The average point total of the ACC without these three newest teams would actually be 518, which is significantly higher than their actual average point total of 437.

Top 50 Teams:

5) Arizona Wildcats – Total Points: 749

1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 2 Final Four Appearances, 3 Elite Eight Appearance, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 0 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 5

Arizona is the only team in Division I college basketball that has made the NCAA tournament every year for the past 24 seasons. That, along with some very successful tournaments, makes the Wildcats undoubtedly one of the most prestigious programs of the time period.

The highlight for Arizona came in 1997 when they won a national championship. They defeated No. 1-seeded Kentucky as a No. 4 seed in the finals in a close game.

Arizona also made the national championship game in 2001 as a No. 2 seed, but they lost to No. 1-seeded Duke. The Wildcats have two other Final Four appearances since 1985; one in 1988 and one in 1994.

The reason why Arizona ranks below teams that have missed a few tournaments is their high number of first round losses. In their 24 tournament appearances in this time period, Arizona has lost in the first round ten times. This includes each of the past two seasons.

4) Kentucky Wildcats – Total Points: 978

2 NCAA Championships, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 6 Elite Eight Appearances, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 3 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 4

Arizona may have won the battle of the Wildcats by defeating Kentucky in the national championship game in 1997, but Kentucky wins the war by besting Arizona in the prestige rankings.

Kentucky has dominated the SEC conference and has had a lot of success in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky is below the top three in the rankings because of a tournament ban that caused them to missed three straight tournaments from 1989 to 1991, and several missed opportunities. Their six losses in the Elite Eight round is more than any other college basketball team in this period

Kentucky does have two national championships to its credit in the last 24 seasons. They won the tournament as a No. 1 seed in 1996, after defeated No. 4-seeded Syracuse in the finals, and also won it all two years later in 1998 as a No. 2 seed. There they defeated No. 3-seeded Utah in the finals.

Kentucky also made the championship game in 1997 and the Final Four in 1993.

3) Kansas Jayhawks – Total Points: 1,076

2 NCAA Championships, 2 Championship Game Appearances, 3 Final Four Appearances, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 1 Missed Tournamens
ESPN Rank: 2

Kansas is the No. 3 most prestigious program in the last 24 seasons. They have been in the NCAA tournament 23 of the 24 years and have made it to at least the Final Four in seven of those years.

The Jayhawks won the national championship in 1988 as a No. 6 seed by defeating No. 1-seeded Oklahoma in the finals. Then they added another national championship this last year by defeating No. 1-seeded Memphis in the finals in dramatic overtime fashion as a No. 1 seed. Kansas’ Mario Chalmers hit a game-tying three-pointer at the end of regulation.

Kansas has also been two the national championship game two other times. In 1991 they lost to No. 2-seeded Duke in the finals as a No. 3 seed and in 2003 they lost to No. 3-seeded Syracuse in the finals as a No. 2 seed. Kansas’ other Final Four appearances came in 1986, 1993, and 2002.

You may notice the only difference in my top five teams from ESPN’s is that Kansas and UNC switched places. While Kansas has had more regular season success because they do not have any competition that matches Duke in their conference, North Carolina has had the better tournament success.

2) North Carolina Tar Heels – Total Points: 1,106

2 NCAA Championships, 6 Final Four Appearances, 4 Elite Eight Appearances, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 2 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 3

The Tar Heels are the second most prestigious basketball program over the last 24 seasons. They have only two missed tournaments, both of which came under coach Matt Doherty during the recovery after Dean Smith’s retirement.

Amazingly, in the 22 tournament appearances, UNC has only lost in the first round once. This came in 1999 when they were upset as a No. 3 seed by No. 14-seeded Weber State.

North Carolina has reached at least the Final Four eight times. They won the national championship in 1993 as a No. 1 seed by defeated No. 1-seeded Michigan. Then, after their only other Final Four victory in this time period, UNC won another national championship in 2005. They defeated No. 1-seeded Illinois as a No. 1 seed. The Tar Heels also had six losses in the semi-finals (1991, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2008).

1) Duke Blue Devils – Total Points: 1,135

3 NCAA Championships, 4 Championship Game Appearances, 3 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 6 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 1 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 1

The number one most prestigious team in the last 24 seasons is the Duke Blue Devils. It seems no matter what criteria you use, Duke has been the top program in college basketball in this time period.

The Blue Devils have only missed one tournament, which came in 1995. They have also only lost in the first round twice out of their 23 tournament appearances.

Duke has made it to at least the Final Four ten times since 1985, easily more than any other team. Duke won the national championships in 1991, 1992, and 2001. In 1991 they defeated No. 3-seeded Kansas in the finals as a No. 2 seed. Then the next season they beat No. 6-seeded Michigan in the championship game as a No. 1 seed. They also won the tournament in 2001 as a No. 1 seed, when they defeated No. 2-seeded Arizona in the finals.

Duke has also lost in the championship four times. They lost to No. 2-seeded Louisville as a No. 1 seed in 1986, to No. 1-seeded UNLV as a No. 3 seed in 1990, to No. 1-seeded Arkansas as a No. 2 seed in 1994, and finally to No. 1-seeded UConn as a No. 1 seed in 1999.

Duke also made the Final Four in 1988, 1989, and 2004, but lost all of their semi-final games in those years.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part IX

2008-09-12T07:15:00.000-07:00

This is the ninth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 4-6, and all of the teams rated No. 6-10.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

6) Pac 10 – Average Point Total: 280.20

1) Arizona – 749 (5, 5)
2) UCLA – 731 (6, 7)
3) Stanford – 466 (25, 25)
4) California – 210 (T-54, T-109)
5) Washington – 158 (64, T-124)
6) Southern California – 152 (65, T-132)
7) Oregon – 124 (T-76, T-115)
8) Arizona State – 118 (82, T-181)
9) Washington State – 86 (T-96, T-237)
10) Oregon State – 8 (T-163, T-241)

The Pac 10 ranks last out of all the major conferences because of the lack of depth. Arizona and UCLA are both elite teams ranking inside the top ten, but Stanford is the only other team ranked in the top 50 teams at No. 25.

All of the other teams in the Pac 10 have had sporadic tournament success, except for Oregon State, but none of them have had consistent enough success to place them high in the Prestige Rankings.

The Pac 10 does have two national championships to its credit in the past 24 seasons. Not surprisingly, they were won by Arizona and UCLA. UCLA won the NCAA tournament in 1995 as a No. 1 seed and Arizona won the championship as a No. 4 seed in 1997.

The only Final Four by teams other than Arizona or UCLA was in 1998 when Stanford reached the semi-final round as a No. 3 seed.

Oregon State and Washington State are the weakest teams in the conference. Washington State has almost all of their points in the past two seasons, with a second round exit in 2007 and a Sweet Sixteen last season. Oregon State had four tournament appearances from 1985-1990, but lost in all of their first round games.

5) Big 12 – Average Point Total: 321.67

1) Kansas – 1,076 (3, 2)
2) Texas – 632 (12, 18)
3) Oklahoma – 576 (16, 12)
4) Oklahoma State – 506 (20, 32)
5) Missouri – 316 (42, T-37)
6) Iowa State – 304 (45, T-57)
7) Texas Tech – 144 (T-69, T-90)
8) Kansas State – 134 (72, T-124)
9) Texas A&M – 120 (T-80, 174)
10) Colorado – 36 (T-149, 219)
11) Nebraska– 12 (T-157, T-141)
12) Baylor – 4 (T-191, T-266)

The success of Kansas is the big factor that puts the Big 12 ahead of the Pac 10 in the rankings. The mediocrity of the rest of the conference throughout the years is what keeps the Big 12 below the other major conferences.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Iowa State are all also ranked inside the top 50, but their point totals are not enough to compete with the top teams in the other conferences.

The Big 12 Conference, like the Pac 10, also has two national championships. Both were won by Kansas. The Jayhawks won the 1988 NCAA tournament as a No. 6 seed and won this last year’s tournament as a No. 1 seed.

In addition to Kansas; Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Texas all have Final Four appearances in the last 24 seasons (Oklahoma State has two).

The bottom three teams in this conference are what really weigh down its average. Colorado only has two tournament appearances, even though they did win one of their first round games. Nebraska, along with Louisiana Monroe and North Carolina A&T, holds the unenviable title of most tournament appearances (six) without a tournament victory in the time period. Baylor also is without a tournament victory, and has only two tournament appearances.

4) SEC – Average Score: 338.42

1) Kentucky – 978 (4, 4)
2) Arkansas – 563 (17, T-14)
3) Florida – 500 (22, 21)
4) Alabama – 484 (23, T-35)
5) LSU – 314 (43, T-40)
6) Auburn – 310 (44, T-90)
7) Mississippi State – 252 (49, T-86)
8) Tennessee – 224 (53, 99)
9) Vanderbilt – 208 (57, T-96)
10) Georgia – 130 (T-73, T-105)
11) Mississippi – 90 (92, T-192)
12) South Carolina – 8 (T-163, T-185)

While the SEC has slightly more balance than the Big 12, the lack of any top 15 teams outside of Kentucky puts the SEC in the second half of the rankings for the major conferences. The SEC has eight top 50 teams while the Big 12 only had six. Tennessee and Vanderbilt also both fall just outside of the top 50, at No. 53 and No. 57 respectively.

Another advantage for the SEC is that it stakes claim to five national championships since 1985. Arkansas has won one (1994), Kentucky has won two (1996 and 1998), and Florida has won two (2006 and 2007). LSU and Mississippi State are the only two other teams in this conference with at least one Final Four appearance (LSU actually has two).

Despite a slightly down year last season, the SEC has become a much stronger conference in the past couple of years. Florida, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt have all established, or at least begun to establish, themselves as top basketball programs.

South Carolina is the only team in the SEC without a tournament victory. They have certainly had their chances though, qualifying for the NCAA tournament four times in the past 24 years. The Gamecocks fell victim to two major upsets in consecutive seasons. They lost as a No. 2 seed in 1997 to No. 15-seeded Coppin State and as a No. 3 seed the next year to No. 14-seeded Richmond.

Top 50 Teams:

10) Michigan State Spartans – Total Points: 655

1 NCAA Championship, 3 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 6 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-10

Very few teams have the talent, coaching, and luck to make it to the Final Four round three years in a row. Michigan State was able to accomplish this feat in 1999, 2000, and 2001.

Led by point guard sensation Mateen Cleaves in the first two seasons and coach Tom Izzo in all three, the Spartans reached the Final Four as a No. 1 seed in 1999, won the championship as a No. 1 seed in 2000, and again reached the Final Four as a No. 1 seed in 2001.

Michigan State also has one other Final Four appearance. They reached the semi-final round as a No. 5 seed in 2005 before being beaten handily by No. 1 seed and eventual champion UNC.

The Spartans do have six missed tournament and five first round losses, enough to keep them from moving much higher in the rankings.

9) Georgetown Hoyas – Total Points: 690

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 8 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-10

From 1997 to 2005, Georgetown only qualified for two NCAA tournaments. One resulted in a first round loss in 1997 and the other a Sweet Sixteen loss in 2001. Amazingly, Georgetown’s success in the other years of this time period has more than made up for that drought. The Hoyas only missed one other NCAA tournament outside of this time period (1993).

The main tournament highlight (or disappointment, depending how you look at it) for Georgetown was in 1985 when they made the championship game as a No. 1 seed. There they were heavily favored against tournament Cinderella and No. 8-seeded Villanova. However, Villanova won the battle of Big East teams and upset the Hoyas in one of the most epic NCAA tournament championship games of all time.

Georgetown also made the Final Four in 2007 as a No. 2 seed, getting on the better side of an upset in the Elite Eight by beating No. 1-seeded UNC.

One of the major advantages for Georgetown is that they only have one first round loss, which I mentioned before as being in 1993. Again, since most of the teams in the NCAA tournament are eliminated in the first round, the biggest jump in points comes from winning a first round game.

Georgetown is the only team inside the top ten in the rankings without an NCAA Championship.

8) Syracuse Orangemen – Total Points: 713

1 NCAA Championship, 2 Championship Game Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 9

Syracuse has fallen from the elite ranks in the past four years, but still has done enough in the past 24 seasons to be one of the most prestigious programs overall. The Orangemen were victims of an upset in the NCAA tournament in 2005 as a No. 4 seed to No. 13-seeded Vermont, and again in 2006 as a No. 5 seed to No. 12-seeded Texas A&M. Since then, they have not made the tournament in either of the previous two seasons.

Syracuse’s most glorious moment came in 2003 when Carmelo Anthony led them to a National Championship as a No. 3 seed. They defeated No. 2-seeded UConn in the championship by three points.

Syracuse also fell just short of championships in 1987 and 1996. In 1987 they lost in the final game as a No. 2 seed by one point to No. 1-seeded Indiana. In 1996 they lost as a No. 4 seed to No. 1-seed Kentucky.

Aside from their recent struggles, Syracuse has been one of the most consistent teams in the country. Their three missed tournaments from 1985 to 2006 were all spread out (1993, 1997, and 2002).

7) Connecticut Huskies – Total Points: 724

2 NCAA Championships, 5 Elite Eight Appearances, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 9 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 6

The Huskies have at least four more missed tournaments than any team that is ranked higher than them in the rankings. UConn did not qualify for a single NCAA tournament from 1985 to 1989. However, they have more than had their fair share of tournament success.

Connecticut only has one first round loss in the time period, and that came this past year as a No. 4 seed to No. 13-seeded San Diego. UConn’s starting point guard, A.J. Price, was injured for most of the game.

Connecticut has won two national championships in the time period. The first was in 1999 as a No. 1 seed. They defeated No. 1-seeded Duke in the finals by three points. The other was in 2004 as a No. 2 seed, where they defeated No. 3-seeded Georgia Tech in the finals.

6) UCLA Bruins – Total Points: 731

1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 2 Final Four Appearances, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 7

No team is currently hotter than the UCLA Bruins, who have made it to at least the Final Four in each of the past three seasons. In 2006 they made the championship game as a No. 2 seed, where they lost to No. 3-seeded Florida. In 2007 they lost their semi-final match-up as a No. 2 seed, again to Florida (this time a No. 1 seed). And in 2008 they also lost their semi-final game to No. 1-seeded Memphis as a No. 1 seed.

Even though they missed good chances to win a championship in each of the last three seasons, the Bruins did manage to win a championship in this time period. It came in 1995, and it was the only other time besides the last three seasons that they reached the Final Four. UCLA was able to defeat No. 2-seeded Arkansas as a No. 1 seed in the championship game in 1995.

UCLA struggled the most during this time period in the late 1980’s. From 1985 to 1989 the Bruins had three missed tournaments and never reached the Sweet Sixteen.

The main reason UCLA missed out on a top five spot in the rankings is their five missed tournaments. No team ranked in the top five has more than three missed tournaments.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part VIII

2008-09-11T12:28:00.000-07:00

This is the eighth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 7-9, and all of the teams rated No. 11-15.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

9) Conference USA – Average Point Total: 106.83

1) Memphis – 460 (26, T-14)
2) Tulsa – 302 (46, 39)
T-3) UTEP – 162 (T-62, T-65)
T-3) UAB – 162 (T-62, T-76)
5) Tulane – 102 (84, T-157)
6) Southern Methodist – 70 (T-112, T-165)
7) Central Florida – 8 (T-163, T-196)
8) Houston – 6 (T-175, T-161)
T-9) Southern Mississippi – 4 (T-191, T-177)
T-9) Marshall – 4 (T-191, T-168)
11) East Carolina – 2 (T-226, T-271)
12) Rice – 0 (T-273, T-247)

With the recent loss of teams such as Louisville, Cincinnati, and Depaul, Conference USA has dropped back a level from the rest of the major conferences. However, the strength of the top teams still keeps Conference USA a big step ahead of the mid-major conferences.

Conference USA teams have an average point total of 106.83, while WCC teams (the conference ranked just below Conference USA) have an average point total of only 72.50.

Memphis is currently the dominant team in this conference and easily earns the top spot in the rankings, with 100 more points than second-place Tulsa.

The top five teams in this conference all have over 100 points and are all ranked in the top 84 overall, but there is a big drop-off after that. Southern Methodist, ranked No. 6 in the conference, is the only other team with an NCAA tournament victory in the past 24 seasons.

8) Mountain West – Average Point Total: 148.33

1) UNLV – 453 (27, 8)
2) Utah – 448 (28, 24)
3) New Mexico – 144 (T-69, T-70)
4) BYU – 120 (T-80, 46)
5) Wyoming – 86 (T-96, T-111)
6) Colorado State – 38 (T-142, T-148)
7) TCU – 36 (T-149, T-138)
8) San Diego State – 6 (T-175, T-208)
9) Air Force – 4 (T-191, T-260)

The Mountain West Conference is ahead of Conference USA in the standings because they have two powerhouse teams, while Conference USA only has one. UNLV and Utah are both in the top 30 overall teams.

UNLV barely edged out Utah for the top spot in the Mountain West. Not only are they one after another in the conference standings, but they are also one after another in the overall standings (at 27 and 28 respectively).

Every team in the Mountain West has at least two tournament appearances in the past 24 seasons, and all except San Diego State and Air Force have won at least one game.

The Mountain West is also the first conference we have seen to have a National Championship since 1985. UNLV won the National Championship in 1990.

New Mexico has also had good tournament success, earning four straight first round victories from 1996 to 1999. BYU has twelve tournament appearances, but has lost in the first round nine times and in the second round the other three times. Wyoming is the team that has made the most of their tournament appearances. They have only made the NCAA tournament three times in the past 24 seasons but have a Sweet Sixteen appearance (1987) and a second round exit (2002).

7) Atlantic 10 – Average Score: 148.71

1) Temple – 538 (19, 20)
2) Xavier – 418 (32, 17)
3) Massachusetts – 242 (51, 42)
4) St. Joseph’s – 180 (T-59, T-57)
5) Charlotte – 148 (66, 73)
6) Rhode Island – 146 (T-67, T-134)
7) George Washington – 128 (75, 123)
8) Richmond – 124 (T-76, T-65)
9) Saint Louis – 72 (T-102, T-148)
10) Dayton – 42 (T-130, T-168)
11) La Salle – 40 (T-132, T-132)
T-12) St. Bonaventure – 2 (T-226, T-278)
T-12) Fordham – 2 (T-226, T-214)
14) Duquesne – 0 (T-273, 293)

The Atlantic 10 just barely squeaked ahead of the Mountain West in the rankings, posting an average team point total of less than .5 points higher than the Mountain West. The Atlantic 10 has more teams that have had very good tournament success. The top 8 teams all have well over 100 points.

Temple took first place, Xavier took second, and UMass took third in this conference, all teams well above the teams below them in point total.

Surprisingly, the Atlantic 10 has only one Final Four appearance in the past 24 seasons. That came in 1996 when UMass, led by Marcus Camby and coached by John Calipari, made the semi-final round as a No. 1 seed. They lost to fellow No. 1 seed and eventual champion Kentucky.

The last three teams in the conference rankings, St. Bonaventure, Fordham, and Duquesne, do significantly weight this conference down. Every other team besides these three has at least one tournament victory and at least four tournament appearances since 1985.

Top 50 Teams:

15) Indiana Hoosiers – Total Points: 587

1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 3 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 13

Indiana grabs the final spot in the top 15 with their incredible consistency. They have only three missed tournaments, meaning they have played in the NCAA tournament 21 of the last 24 seasons. This is the least missed tournaments of any team outside the top five in the rankings.

Indiana also has some very good tournament success to speak of. They won the National Championship as a No. 1 seed in 1987. Led by the coaching of Bobby Knight, they won the championship game over No. 2-seeded Syracuse by one point.

The Hoosiers also reached the finals of the NCAA tournament in 2002 as a No. 5 seed. They lost to No. 1-seeded Maryland. Indiana’s only other Final Four in the past 24 seasons came in 1992 as a No. 2 seed, where they lost to No. 1-seeded and eventual champion Duke.

The main negative for Indiana is that they have nine first round losses. Also, their 2002 finals appearance was the only time they have advanced past the second round of the tournament since 1994.

14) Maryland Terrapins – Total Points: 601

1 NCAA Championship, 1 Final Four Appearance, 6 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 9 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 28

Although they have a relatively high number of missed tournaments, Maryland is high in the rankings because of their good finishes, including only losing in the first round twice. Their two first round losses came in back-to-back seasons, in 1996 and 1997. They lost to No. 10-seeded Santa Clara in 1996 as a No. 7 seed and to No. 12-seeded College of Charleston as a No. 5 seed in 1997.

The highlight for Maryland was winning the NCAA Championship in 2002. They won the tournament without playing a game closer than eight points as a No. 1 seed and one of the tournament favorites.

Maryland also reached the Final Four the previous season in 2001 as a No. 3 seed. They lost their semi-final match-up to conference foe and eventual champion Duke, who was a No. 1 seed that year.

The six Sweet Sixteen appearances for the Terrapins is very high. Only the No. 1 ranked team has as many losses in the third round of the NCAA tournament in the last 24 seasons.

13) Illinois Fighting Illini – Total Points: 616

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 23

Despite not having won a National Championship, Illinois still is one of the most prestigious college basketball programs in the past 24 seasons. Illinois only has missed out on the tournament five times and has several top finishes.

The best finish for the Fighting Illini was in 2005. They reached the finals of the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed with the help of a miraculous comeback to defeated No. 2-seeded Arizona in the Elite Eight. They lost in a close game to another No. 1 seed and extremely talented team, North Carolina.

Illinois also qualified for the Final Four in 1989 as a No. 1 seed. There they lost a two point game to No. 2-seeded and eventual champion Michigan.

12) Texas Longhorns – Total Points: 632

1 Final Four Appearance, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 6 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 18

Texas also does not have an NCAA championship in the past 24 seasons, or even a championship game appearance. But the Longhorns do have other tournament success to speak of.

After not making the NCAA tournament in 1985, 1986, or 1987, Texas has made the tournament in 18 of the last 21 seasons. Texas has had a number of extremely good teams in recent years, placing fourth overall in the rankings for this decade only.

The best finish for Texas came in 2003 as a No. 1 seed when they reached the Final Four, before losing to Carmelo Anthony and No. 3-seeded Syracuse. Texas also reached the Elite Eight in 1990, 2006, and 2008.

11) Louisville Cardinals – Total Points: 637

1 NCAA Championship, 1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-14

Louisville has been an extremely consistent basketball program over the last 24 seasons and also has achieved great tournament success.

The Cardinals won the NCAA Championship in 1986 as a No. 2 seed. They defeated No. 1-seeded Duke in the finals by three points.

Louisville also made the Final Four in 2005 as a No. 4 seed, where they were beaten easily by No. 1-seeded Illinois.

Even though the Louisville basketball program has experienced a strong resurgence lately, most of the Cardinals tournament success came in the time period from 1986 to 1997. They only missed the tournament two years in this stretch, only lost in the first round one year, and only lost in the second round two years. That leaves seven of the twelve years that they at least made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part VII

2008-09-10T12:30:00.000-07:00

This is the seventh part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 10-12, and all of the teams rated No. 16-20.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

12) Horizon League – Average Point Total: 54.00

1) Butler – 174 (61, 47)
2) Wisconsin-Milwaukee – 86 (T-96, T-124)
3) Detroit – 68 (T-114, T-165)
4) Valparaiso – 62 (116, 56)
T-5) Cleveland State – 50 (T-121, T-185)
T-5) Loyola (IL) – 50 (T-121, T-233)
7) Wisconsin-Green Bay – 40 (T-132, T-105)
8) Illinois-Chicago – 6 (T-175, T-172)
9) Wright State – 4 (T-191, T-177)
10) Youngstown State – 0 (T-273, 287)

The Horizon League is a very balance conference, especially in the middle. The top seven teams all have at least one tournament victory in the past 24 seasons. The top six teams all have at least two tournament victories.

Butler is far and away the most prestigious program in this conference though. They have more than double the point total of the second place team, Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Butler has two Sweet Sixteen appearances (2003 and 2007) and two second round exits (2001 and 2008). They also have three other tournament appearances, the first of which in this time period did not come until 1997.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is another team with only recent tournament success. Almost all of their points come from a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2005 and a second round exit in 2006.

It should also be pointed out that all of Valparaiso’s tournament success came as members of the Mid-Continent Conference (which has turned into the Summit League). Valparaiso joined the Horizon League in 2007, so they have only played two seasons in this conference.

Youngstown State is the only team in this conference without an NCAA tournament appearance since 1985.

11) Missouri Valley Conference – Average Point Total: 68.60

1) Southern Illinois – 146 (T-67, T-53)
2) Creighton – 114 (83, 59)
3) Missouri State – 92 (T-90, 55)
4) Bradley – 88 (T-93, T-102)
5) Illinois State – 72 (T-102, T-102)
6) Wichita State – 56 (T-118, 160)
T-7) Northern Iowa – 40 (T-132, T-214)
T-7) Evansville – 40 (T-132, T-148)
9) Indiana State – 36 (T-149, T-260)
10) Drake – 2 (T-226, T-274)

The Missouri Valley is the first conference to appear in the rankings having two teams eclipse the 100 point mark. Southern Illinois and Creighton have had the most tournament success of these teams, with the Salukis topping the Blue Jays for the top spot in the conference.

The Missouri Valley has recently established itself as the strongest mid-major conference in college basketball, but many teams have had tournament success in this conference throughout the past 24 seasons.

Every single team in this conference, except Drake, has recorded a tournament victory in the time period. Drake actually dominated the league last season and earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, but they fell victim to No. 12-seeded Western Kentucky in a thrilling overtime upset.

Southern Illinois has two Sweet Sixteen appearances and one second round tournament exit, with all of their tournament wins coming since 2002. Creighton has three first round victories, but has not yet reached the Sweet Sixteen. Both of these teams tied for the most tournament appearances in the last 24 seasons with nine each.

Missouri State, Bradley, and Wichita State all have Sweet Sixteen appearances (Missouri State also has one second round exit). Illinois State has two first round victories, and Northern Iowa, Evansville, and Indiana State all have one first round tournament victory each.

13) West Coast Conference – Average Score: 72.50

1) Gonzaga – 318 (41, 26)
2) Loyola Marymount – 94 (T-87, T-161)
3) Santa Clara – 72 (T-102, T-145)
4) Pepperdine – 46 (T-124, T-80)
5) San Diego– 38 (T-142, T-148)
6) Saint Mary’s– 8 (T-163, T-206)
T-7) San Francisco– 2 (T-226, T-229)
T-7) Portland – 2 (T-226, T-253)

The high ranking for the WCC can be attributed mainly to the overwhelming tournament success of Gonzaga. Gonzaga’s success was highlighted in the top 50 teams section in Part 2 of this series.

Gonzaga easily is the top team in this conference, having more than triple the points of the second place team, Loyola Marymount.

Loyola Marymount fell just shy of the 100 point mark. They had three straight tournament appearances from 1988 to 1990, and managed one second round exit and one Elite Eight appearance.

Santa Clara is the only other team in this conference with multiple tournament victories over the past 24 seasons. They won first round games in 1993 and 1996.

Pepperdine and San Diego have one tournament win each in this time frame. None of the bottom three teams have recorded a tournament victory, but all have reached the NCAA tournament at least once.

Top 50 Teams:

20) Oklahoma State Cowboys – Total Points: 506

2 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 11 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 32

The Cowboys have at least two more missed tournaments than any other team inside the top 20, but they make up for it with impressive tournament highlights and only two first round losses.

Oklahoma State made the Final Four in 1995 as a No. 4 seed and again in 2004 as a No. 2 seed. They also made the Elite Eight in 2000 as a No. 3 seed.

Unfortunately for Oklahoma State, they had zero tournament appearances from 1985-1990 and have not made the NCAA tournament in the past three seasons.

19) Temple Owls – Total Points: 538

5 Elite Eight Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 20

Temple ties with UConn for the second most losses in the round before the Final Four. Only Kentucky has more Elite Eight losses. Temple made the Elite Eight in 1988, 1991, 1993, 1999, and 2001.

The Temple basketball program took a big step back after the 2001 Elite Eight appearance. They missed the NCAA tournament for the next six seasons in a row after having only one other missed tournament in the last 24 seasons in 1989. Temple did qualify for the tournament this past season as a No. 12 seed, but lost their first round game to No. 5-seeded Michigan State.

Temple is the highest rated team in the rankings that is not from one of the traditional power conferences.

18) Purdue Boilermakers – Total Points: 546

2 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 29

Purdue has only lost three first round tournament games in their 17 tournament appearances, and has only lost one since 1987. That came in 1994 when they lost as a No. 9 seed to No. 8-seeded Rhode Island.

Purdue also has two Elite Eight appearances. One came in 1994 as a No. 1 seed and the other was in 2000 as a No. 6 seed. They also made the Sweet Sixteen in 1988, 1998, and 1999.

While Purdue did miss five NCAA tournaments from 2001 to 2006, the Boilermakers have participated in the tournament each of the last two seasons. They have won their first round games in each of those two appearances, but failed to win their second round match-ups.

17) Arkansas Razorbacks – Total Points: 563

1 NCAA Championship, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 7 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-14

All of the Razorbacks’ highlighted tournament finishes came between 1990 and 1996. They only failed to reach at least the Sweet Sixteen one time in this period; they lost in the second round in 1992 as a No. 3 seed to No. 6-seeded Memphis.

Arkansas won the NCAA championship in 1994 as a No. 1 seed, lost in the 1995 NCAA Championship game as a No. 2 seed to No. 1-seeded UCLA, and also made the Final Four in 1990 as a No. 4 seed.

Unfortunately for Razorbacks fans, Arkansas has not returned to the elite level in college basketball since their 1996 Sweet Sixteen performance. They have not reached the Sweet Sixteen since, and have missed the tournament five of the last twelve seasons. They have also lost their first round games four times when they did qualify for the NCAA tournament in the same time period.

16) Oklahoma Sooners – Total Points: 576

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 5 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 12

The Sooners have been the most consistent basketball program we have seen so far in the team rankings. They have made the NCAA tournament 19 of the last 24 seasons, only failing to qualify five times.

Oklahoma reached the final game of the NCAA tournament in 1988 as a No. 1 seed. They lost by four points to No. 6-seed Kansas.

The Sooners only other Final Four appearance came in 2002 as a No. 2 seed. They also reached the Elite Eight in 1985 as a No. 1 seed and in 2003 as a No. 1 seed.

The main negative for Oklahoma is that they do have seven first round losses.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part VI

2008-09-09T12:05:00.000-07:00

This is the sixth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 13-15, and all of the teams rated No. 21-25.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

15) Sun Belt Conference – Average Point Total: 33.54

1) Western Kentucky – 210 (T-54, T-43)
2) South Alabama – 44 (T-126, T-82)
3) Louisiana Lafayette – 42 (T-130, T-119)
4) New Orleans – 40 (T-132, 88)
T-5) Arkansas-Little Rock – 38 (T-142, 107)
T-5) Middle Tennessee State – 38 (T-142, T-141)
7) Louisiana Monroe – 12 (T-157, T-96)
8) North Texas – 4 (T-191, 220)
T-9) Troy – 2 (T-226, T-161)
T-9) Florida Atlantic – 2 (T-226, T-233)
T-9) Arkansas State – 2 (T-226, T-168)
T-9) Florida International – 2 (T-226, T-260)
13) Denver – 0 (T-273, DNQ)

The top six teams in the Sun Belt rankings all have at least one NCAA tournament victory in the last 24 seasons. However, Western Kentucky clearly stands out among all the other teams in this conference.

The Hilltoppers from Western Kentucky are the only team in the conference with multiple tournament wins. They have the highest point total by far of any team we have seen in the conference rankings with 210. They barely missed out on the top 50 in my rankings and actually made the top 50 in the ESPN rankings (again because they play in a weaker conference).

Western Kentucky has played in nine tournaments since 1985 and has two Sweet Sixteen appearances. They also have three second round exits. With seven total tournament wins, they easily more than quadruple any other Sun Belt teams’ point total.

While no other team has achieved near the tournament success of Western Kentucky in this conference, the tournament appearances is much more balanced among the top teams in the Sun Belt. After WKU’s nine appearances, in order of rank, South Alabama has six, Louisiana Lafayette has five, New Orleans has four, Arkansas-Little Rock has three, Middle Tennessee State has three, and Louisiana Monroe has six.

14) MAC – Average Point Total: 38.00

1) Kent State – 98 (85, T-61)
2) Miami (OH) – 94 (T-102, T-80)
3) Ball State – 92 (T-160, T-115)
4) Eastern Michigan – 88 (T-189, T-225)
T-5) Western Michigan – 36 (T-191, 191)
T-5) Central Michigan – 36 (T-191, T-203)
7) Ohio – 6 (T-226, T-208)
8) Northern Illinois – 4 (T-273, T-298)
9) Akron – 2 (T-273, T-298)
T-10) Buffalo – 0 (T-273, T-298)
T-10) Bowling Green – 0 (T-273, T-298)
T-10) Toledo – 0 (T-273, T-298)

The Mid American Conference has a very close race at the top of the rankings. The top four teams are all within ten points of each other, a rare occurrence after looking at all of the previous conference standings.

Kent State gets the top spot in the conference on the heels of their Elite Eight appearance in 2002, when current NLF star Antonio Gates was a key player on their team. The Golden Flashes also won their first round tournament match-up in 2001. They have five tournament appearances since 1985, all coming from 1999 to 2008.

Miami of Ohio gets the second spot with seven tournament appearances, including one Sweet Sixteen and one second round exit. Ball State is third with also a Sweet Sixteen and a second round exit, but only six tournament appearances. Eastern Michigan is only four points behind them; they also have one Sweet Sixteen and one second round exit, but only have four total tournament appearances.

The bottom part of the MAC is rather weak, which keeps it below some of the other mid-major conferences in the rankings. Buffalo, Bowling Green, and Toledo all have no tournament appearances in the time period of the rankings.

13) WAC – Average Score: 45.11

1) Nevada – 122 (T-78, T-74)
2) New Mexico State – 94 (T-87, T-61)
3) Louisiana Tech – 88 (T-93, T-74)
4) Utah State – 46 (T-124, T-61)
5) Fresno State– 36 (T-149, T-148)
6) Boise State– 8 (T-163, T-109)
7) Hawaii – 6 (T-175, 156)
8) Idaho – 4 (T-191, T-196)
9) San Jose State – 2 (T-226, T-282)

Much like the MAC, the WAC also has a fairly balanced and successful top of the division but a weaker bottom half. The difference is that Nevada has had exceptional tournament success for the WAC and every WAC team has at least one tournament appearance in the last 24 seasons.

Nevada has four NCAA tournament victories in the time frame, all which have come in the past five seasons. Their best finish was a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2004 as a No. 10 seed.

New Mexico State also has had a lot of tournament success, including a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 1992 and a first round victory in 1993. Louisiana Tech has had the same success, but only with three less tournament appearances.

Utah State has also been one of the better teams in the WAC since 1985. Their tournament success is a little below some of the other teams, but their other accolades were enough to have them tied for first place with New Mexico State in the ESPN rankings for this conference. Utah State has seven tournament appearances but only one tournament win in this time period.

Fresno State is the only other team in the WAC with a tournament victory.

Top 50 Teams:

25) Stanford Cardinal – Total Points: 466

1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 9 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 25

Stanford has been one of the most consistent college basketball teams in the last 24 years. It is their consistency that puts them in the top 25 rather than their top finishes.

The Cardinal only has one Final Four appearance, which came in 1998 as a No. 3 seed. They lost by one point to Kentucky, who went on to win the championship.

Stanford could be much higher in the rankings, but from 1985 to 1994 they had only two tournament appearances and zero tournament victories. Since then, they have only missed qualifying for one tournament and have only lost two of their first round games.

Stanford did make the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in four seasons this past year, but their team may have difficulty returning to that point next season after the loss of Brook and Robin Lopez to the NBA draft.

24) Michigan Wolverines – Total Points: 475

1 NCAA Championship, 2 Championship Game Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 12 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 22

The last time Michigan made the NCAA tournament was 1998. The last time Michigan made it to at least the Sweet Sixteen was 1994 (where they made the Elite Eight). That should give you an idea how dominant Michigan was from 1985 to 1994.

Michigan won the National Championship in 1989 as a No. 3 seed by defeating Seton Hall by one point. They also lost the championship game in 1992 to Duke and again lost in the finals the next year to North Carolina. The championship game loss to North Carolina was the famous game where Chris Webber took a timeout that Michigan did not have

There is another big negative for Michigan though. Several year ago, the University of Michigan self-imposed a sanction on its basketball team after an investigation revealed that a Michigan booster had given money to four of the basketball players, including Chris Webber. They forfeited all of their tournament victories where players that had been paid participated.

My rankings still give Michigan credit for the wins that they recorded. This is for simplicity but also because Michigan still earned these wins on the court. As a basketball team, those victories still took place and fans will remember those teams as great basketball teams. The repercussions of the sanctions can be seen in the fact that Michigan has not had a good basketball team in ten years, so there is no need to further penalize the Wolverines.

23) Alabama Crimson Tide – Total Points: 484

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 5 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 10 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-35

Alabama has only made it past the Sweet Sixteen round once in the last 24 years, but their consistency as a solid basketball team puts them in the top 25. Five Sweet Sixteen appearances are the most of any team outside the top 15 in the rankings.

Most of Alabama’s tournament success actually came from 1985-1991. They made the Sweet Sixteen in 1985, 1986, 1987, 1990, and 1991.

Even though the Crimson Tide had much more success in the earlier years that these rankings cover, their best finish did come in 2004. They made the Elite Eight as a No. 8 seed, where they lost to eventual champion UConn.

22) Florida Gators – Total Points: 500

2 NCAA Championships, 1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 10 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 21

The success of the Florida basketball program over the past ten years has catapulted them into the elite of college basketball. The Gators did miss out on the NCAA tournament this past season, but after losing all starting players on a team that won two straight NCAA Championships, they deserve a little bit of a break.

In addition to their championships in 2006 and 2007, Florida also played in the final game of the tournament in 2000 as a No. 5 seed, losing to Michigan State.

Outside of the last ten seasons, the main accomplishment for Florida in this time period was a Final Four appearance in 1994 as a No. 3 seed.

Four first round losses and four second round losses, along with ten missed tournaments, keep Florida from being higher in the rankings.

21) Cincinnati Bearcats – Total Points: 504

1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 10 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 19

Cincinnati has not made the NCAA tournament in the past three seasons. They also did not qualify for the tournament at all from 1985-1991. They did, however, make the tournament for every season in between.

In their streak of fourteen straight tournament appearances, the Bearcats only lost in the first round twice. They had slightly more trouble with their second round games, losing eight times in the round of 32.

Cincinnati’s best finish was a Final Four appearance in 1992 as a No. 4 seed. They lost to No. 6-seeded Michigan in their semi-final match-up.

It’s important to remember that the biggest point jump comes from a team winning a first round tournament game since most of the teams are eliminated at this point. The consistency of the Bearcats is enough to beat out the four Final Fours (including two championships) of the Florida Gators.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part V

2008-09-08T13:23:00.000-07:00

This is the fifth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 16-18, and all of the teams rated No. 26-30.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

18) MAAC – Average Point Total: 18.00

T-1) Manhattan – 72 (T-102, T-115)
T-1) Siena – 72 (T-102, 69)
3) Iona – 10 (T-160, T-129)
4) Fairfield – 6 (T-175, T-229)
T-5) Niagara – 4 (T-191, T-148)
T-5) Rider – 4 (T-191, T-138)
T-5) St. Peter’s – 4 (T-191, T-196)
T-5) Marist – 4 (T-191, T-148)
T-9) Canisius – 2 (T-226, T-214)
T-9) Loyola (MD) – 2 (T-226, T-271)

The MAAC has two teams with very good tournament success as well for a small conference. The only reason the MAAC is tied with and not ahead of the Ivy League is that they have more teams than the Ivy League does, so the average of the top two teams is weighed down even more.

Manhattan and Siena have almost the exact same resumes, and so they are tied atop the conference rankings. Notice that Siena is much higher in ESPN’s rankings because they have had more consistent regular season success than Manhattan has.

Both Manhattan and Siena have been to the NCAA tournament four times in the past 24 seasons. They have each won two first round games and lost two first round games. Manhattan defeated No. 4-seeded Oklahoma as a No. 13 seed in 1995 and also beat No. 5-seeded Florida as a No. 12 seed in 2004. Siena won against No. 3-seeded Stanford as a No. 14 seed in 1989 and easily defeated No. 4-seeded Vanderbilt as a No. 13 seed this past NCAA tournament.

No other MAAC team besides Manhattan or Siena has won an NCAA tournament game, but they have all had at least one tournament appearance.

17) Patriot League – Average Point Total: 24.63

1) Navy – 100 (85, T-61)
2) Bucknell – 72 (T-102, T-80)
3) Holy Cross – 10 (T-160, T-115)
4) Lehigh – 5 (T-189, T-225)
T-5) Lafayette – 4 (T-191, 191)
T-5) Colgate – 4 (T-191, T-203)
7) American – 2 (T-226, T-208)
8) Army – 0 (T-273, T-298)

To younger college basketball fans, it may come as a surprise to see Navy with so many points. However, Navy does have four tournament victories in this time frame. They won their first round game in 1985 as a No. 13 seed over No. 4-seeded LSU. Then the following season they made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 7 seed. They also have four other tournament appearances, but none after 1998.

Bucknell also has a high point total after tournament victories in back to back years in 2005 and 2006. They shocked the world by defeating No. 3-seeded Kansas as a No. 14 seed and then beat No. 8-seeded Arkansas as a No. 9 seed the following year.

Holy Cross is also usually a very good team coming out of the Patriot League. They have five tournament appearances. They have no tournament victories in the last 24 seasons, but have had several very close games.

Army is the only team in this conference without an NCAA tournament appearance since 1985.

16) Colonial Athletic Association – Average Score: 30.17

1) Old Dominion – 78 (101, T-76)
2) Virginia Commonwealth – 72 (T-102, 94)
3) George Mason – 70 (T-112, 100)
T-4) UNC Wilmington – 40 (T-132, T-102)
T-4) Drexel – 40 (T-132, 93)
6) Georgia State– 36 (T-149, 195)
T-7) Delaware – 8 (T-163, T-145)
T-7) Northeastern – 8 (T-163, T-119)
T-9) Hofstra – 4 (T-191, T-183)
T-9) Towson – 4 (T-191, T-210)
11) James Madison– 2 (T-226, T-141)
12) William & Mary– 0 (T-273, T-284)

The CAA is really the first conference so far to show a good level of balance throughout. There are no scores that jump out, but the top six teams all have at least one tournament victory. The top three teams all have over 70 points and are very close in total points.

Old Dominion gets the top spot in the conference with seven tournament appearances, including two first round victories. VCU is second with also two first round victories, but only four total appearances. George Mason gets third on the heels of their Final Four appearance in 2006. George Mason has no other tournament victories in the time period, but they do have four other tournament appearances.

UNC Wilmington is a team that could easily be up with the rest of the conference leaders in the standings. UNCW lost a close game to No. 8-seeded George Washington in 2006 as a No. 9 seed after blowing a big first half lead, and also lost on a last second shot to N0. 6-seeded Maryland in 2003 as a No. 11 seed.

William & Mary is the only team in this conference without a tournament appearance in the past 24 seasons. They were very close last season however, as they lost to George Mason in the conference championship game.

Top 50 Teams:

30) Ohio State Buckeyes – Total Points: 440

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 27

Even though they tie for the most missed tournaments for teams in the top 30, the Buckeyes have had plenty of tournament success.

Amazingly, Ohio State has only lost one first round game. That came in 2001 when they were upset by No. 12-seeded Utah State as a No. 5 seed.

In recent years Ohio State has really emerged as an elite program under coach Thad Matta. They made it to the Championship game in 2007, where they lost to the back-to-back champion Florida Gators. The Buckeyes missed the tournament this past season as a bubble team after several players left early for the NBA, but ended up winning the NIT tournament (although they get no points for that in my rankings).

Ohio State also reached the Final Four in 1999 as a No. 4 seed. They lost their semifinal match-up to eventual champion Connecticut.

29) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Total Points: 446

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 10 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 33

Georgia Tech achieved most of their tournament success over the last 24 seasons between 1985 and 1993. They made the tournament all of these years and had a Final Four appearance in 1990, an Elite Eight appearance in 1985, and Sweet Sixteen appearances in 1986 and 1992.

The Yellow Jackets best tournament finish, however, came in 2004 when they reached the Championship game as a No. 3 seed. There they lost to No. 2-seeded Connecticut.

Georgia Tech would be much higher in the rankings, but they have only been in the NCAA Tournament four times in the past twelve seasons.

28) Utah Utes – Total Points: 448

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 11 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 24

All of Utah’s tournament victories in the past 24 seasons have come between 1991 and 2005. During this time they were consistently one of the best teams in college basketball, with only three missed tournaments in this stretch. They also only lost two first round games in this stretch.

Utah’s best tournament showing by far came in 1998 when they made the NCAA Championship game. They lost to No. 2-seeded Kentucky as a No. 3 seed in the final game after defeating two No. 1 seeds in the Elite Eight (Arizona) and Final Four (Duke).

27) UNLV Runnin’ Rebels – Total Points: 453

1 NCAA Championship, 2 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearances, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 8

UNLV was clearly one of the dominant basketball programs of the 1980’s and very early 1990’s. However, they have way too many missed tournaments in the last 24 seasons to crack the top 25 teams in my rankings.

UNLV has only been in only four NCAA tournaments since 1991, and never won a tournament game from 1991 through 2006. A Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2007 and a first round victory this past year gives Rebel fans slight hope that the program might return back to elite status.

That being said, the tournament success that UNLV had from 1985 to 1991 was simply spectacular. They never lost a first round game and made it to at least the Sweet Sixteen in all but two of those seven years. In 1990 they won the National Championship as a No. 1 seed by defeating Duke by 30 points in the championship game. They also made the Final Four in 1987 and 1991, the Elite Eight in 1989, and the Sweet Sixteen in 1986.

26) Memphis Tigers – Total Points: 460

1 NCAA Championship Game Appearance, 1 Final Four Appearance, 3 Elite Eight Appearances, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 11 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-14

Memphis just missed out on being one of the top 25 most prestigious programs since 1985 mainly because of their drought between 1996 and 2005. They only had one tournament win during that time in only three tournament appearances.

Memphis has also had a difficult time moving past the Elite Eight in this time period. Three Elite Eight Appearances is the most for any team outside of the top 20 in the rankings.

A lot of Memphis’ tournament success has come in the past three seasons. Their success is impressive considering their conference has become a lot weaker since most of the better teams left for the Big East. With two Elite Eight appearances in 2006 and 2007 and then a heartbreaking loss in overtime to Kansas in the National Championship game in 2008, Memphis is certainly doing their part to maintain the reputation of Conference USA.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part IV

2008-09-07T09:36:00.000-07:00

This is the fourth part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 19-21, and all of the teams rated No. 31-35.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

21) Big Sky – Average Point Total: 14.44

1) Weber State – 72 (T-102, 89)
2) Montana – 44 (T-126, T-76)
T-3) Northern Arizona – 4 (T-191, T-136)
T-3) Montana State – 4 (T-191, 155)
T-5) Portland State – 2 (T-226, DNQ)
T-5) Eastern Washington – 2 (T-226, T-233)
T-5) Idaho State – 2 (T-226, T-274)
T-8) Northern Colorado – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-8) Sacramento State – 0 (T-273, T-278)

With two first round tournament wins under their belt, Weber State easily tops all the other teams in the Big Sky. They defeated No. 3-seeded Michigan State as a No. 14 seed in 1995, and then beat No. 3 seeded UNC again as a No. 14 seed in 1999.

The only other tournament win in this conference comes from the Montana upset of No. 5 seeded Nevada as a No. 12 seed in 2006.

Although there are only two teams in the conference without a tournament appearance in the past 24 seasons, no other team besides the top two have made it more than twice. The weakness of the bottom teams is a contributing factor to Montana and Weber State being so overrated in the ESPN rankings.

20) Southern Conference – Average Point Total: 16.36

1) Davidson – 68 (T-114, 60)
2) Chattanooga – 60 (117, 48)
3) College of Charleston – 40 (T-132, 50)
T-4) UNC Greensboro – 4 (T-191, T-129)
T-4) Georgia Southern – 4 (T-191, T-119)
T-6) Appalachian State – 2 (T-226, T-172)
T-6) Western Carolina – 2 (T-226, T-282)
T-8) The Citadel – 0 (T-273, 289)
T-8) Elon – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-8) Furman – 0 (T-273, T-256)
T-8) Wofford – 0 (T-273, DNQ)

Like most of the other small conferences with higher average, the Southern Conference is very top heavy. However, there are three teams that have enjoyed tournament success from this conference. Again, since the bottom teams are so weak, the top three are highly overrated in the ESPN rankings.

The Southern Conference has had two very successful years in the NCAA tournament in the past 24 seasons.

This past year Davidson made a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight. Stephen Curry and the rest of the No. 10-seeded Wildcats impressively beat elite teams Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin before losing on a missed last second shot to eventual champion Kansas. With the return of Curry this year, Davidson is expected to be a serious threat in the tournament again this season.

Chattanooga also had a Sweet Sixteen run in 1997 as a No. 14 seed. In that same NCAA tournament, College of Charleston recorded the only other tournament victory for the Southern Conference in this time period by defeating No. 5-seeded Maryland as a No. 12 seed.

T-18) Ivy League – Average Score: 18.00

1) Princeton– 82 (100, T-40)
2) Pennsylvania – 56 (T-118, 34)
3) Cornell – 4 (T-191, T-225)
4) Brown – 2 (T-226, T-266)
T-5) Columbia – 0 (T-273, T-294)
T-5) Yale– 0 (T-273, T-241)
T-5) Harvard – 0 (T-273, T-284)
T-5) Dartmouth – 0 (T-273, T-284)

The Ivy League has been dominated by Pennsylvania and Princeton over the past 24 years. Princeton is the first team in the conference section that has cracked the top 100 overall teams. Along with a Pennsylvania team that has twelve tournament appearances with one tournament win, Princeton puts the Ivy League surprisingly high in the rankings.

Princeton has nine tournament appearances and two tournament wins. They defeated No. 4-seeded UCLA as a No. 13 seed in 1996 and then beat No. 12-seeded UNLV as a No. 5 seed in 1998.

Cornell won the Ivy League crown to become the first team besides Penn or Princeton to represent the Ivy League since Cornell won the league championship previously in 1988. Cornell went undefeated in Ivy League play in 2008 but was beaten badly by No. 3-seeded Stanford in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Again I apologize to any Ivy League fans for putting them in this post and the conference they are tied with in the next post. The reasoning was that all of the teams in the other conference have made the NCAA tournament at least once, while there are four Ivy League teams that have never made the tournament in the past 24 seasons.

Top 50 Teams:

T-35) Pittsburgh Panthers – Total Points: 378

4 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 11 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-43

It’s surprising that a team that hasn’t advanced past the Sweet Sixteen is so high in the rankings, but Pittsburgh is certainly one of the top college basketball programs over the past 24 seasons.

In addition to four Sweet Sixteen’s, Pittsburgh has only lost four first round match-ups and has consistently qualified for the NCAA tournament except for a eight year stretch from 1994 to 2001. Four Sweet Sixteen appearances is more than anyone else we have seen in the top 50 thus far and also more than anyone else below the top 50 except for Vanderbilt (No. 57).

The outlook for the Panther basketball program looks very good for the future as well, as they have established themselves as a consistent contender in a Big East conference now stacked with prestigious programs. It shouldn’t be long before the Panthers finally advance past the Sweet Sixteen in an NCAA tournament.

34) Iowa Hawkeyes– Total Points: 404

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 10 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 49

Iowa has only advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen three times in the past 24 seasons, but they have qualified for the tournament 14 times and only lost their first round game four of those years.

The Hawkeyes made the Elite Eight in 1987 after losing first round games in both 1985 and 1986, and then didn’t lose another first round tournament game again until 2005.

Unfortunately for Hawkeye fans, Iowa has only made the tournament twice in the past seven seasons, and they lost both of those first round tournament games.

33) Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Total Points: 416

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 12 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-37

Throughout the 1990’s and early 2000’s, Wake Forest was able to challenge UNC and Duke in the ACC and became one of the country’s top programs.

The fact that they have zero Final Fours, they never made the tournament for the first six years that these rankings cover, and that they have had a big backlash after Chris Paul’s departure and haven’t made the NCAA tournament in the past three seasons is what keeps the Demon Deacons outside of the top 30.

Wake Forest’s best tournament finish came in 1996 when Tim Duncan led them to the Elite Eight.

32) Xavier Musketeers – Total Points: 418

2 Elite Eight Appearances, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 7 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 17

Seven missed tournaments for Xavier is the least out of any team outside the top 20 teams in my rankings. The Musketeers have been one of the most consistently good basketball programs in the past 24 seasons, a very impressive feat for a team that is not in one of the power conferences.

Xavier has been making it further into the tournament lately, as both of their Elite Eight appearances have come within the past five seasons. They made it as a No. 7 seed in 2004 and then again as a No. 3 seed in 2008.

The downside that keeps Xavier from being higher in the rankings is seven first round tournament losses in the time period.

31) Villanova Wildcats – Total Points: 425

1 NCAA Championship, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 11 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-30

Villanova is the lowest rated NCAA Champion in the rankings. They also have other impressive tournament highlights in the past 24 years. However, the Wildcats have too many missed tournaments and too many first round exits to be any higher up in the rankings.

The Wildcats won the NCAA tournament in 1985 as a No. 8 seed after defeating their rival and defending national champion Georgetown in one of the most remembered championship games of all time. With the win, Villanova became the highest (numerically) seeded team to win the tournament championship.

Villanova also had Elite Eight appearances in 1988 and 2006. The 2006 Villanova team really signaled that the Wildcats were back as a top college basketball team after not advancing past the second round of the tournament for 16 years after their 1988 Elite Eight run (they finally made the Sweet Sixteen in 2005).

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part III

2008-09-06T17:38:00.000-07:00

This is the third part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 22-24, and all of the teams rated No. 36-40.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

24) MEAC – Average Point Total: 9.73

1) Coppin State – 39 (141, T-90)
2) Hampton – 37 (148, DNQ)
3) North Carolina A&T – 12 (T-157, T-161)
4) South Carolina State – 10 (T-160, T-111)
T-5) Florida A&M – 5 (T-189, T-237)
T-5) Delaware State – 2 (T-226, T-229)
7) Howard – 2 (T-226, 260)
T-8) Morgan State – 0 (T-273, T-290)
T-8) Norfolk State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-8) Maryland Eastern Shore – 0 (T-273, T-298)
T-8) Bethune Cookman – 0 (T-273, T-298)

It is very rare for No. 15 seed to defeat a No. 2 seed in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The last team to do it was Hampton in 2001. Hampton defeated No. 2 seeded Iowa State. However, the MEAC also has another team that shares this record of biggest NCAA tournament upset. No. 15 seeded Coppin State defeated No. 2 seeded South Carolina in 1997.

The MEAC conference does seem to be losing prestige lately however. The NCAA play-in game was instituted in 2001, and three of the eight play-in game losers have come from the MEAC (Coppin State, Hampton, Florida A&M).

In one of the closer conference races thus far, Coppin State gets the top spot over Hampton because they have qualified for one more tournament. It should be noted however, that Hampton only became a Division I program in 1995. Coppin State had ten extra years to accrue points, which is more than a slight advantage.

23) Ohio Valley – Average Point Total: 10.18

1) Murray State – 54 (120, T-30)
2) Austin Peay – 40 (T-132, 122)
T-3) Eastern Kentucky – 4 (T-191, T-253)
T-3) Samford – 4 (T-191, T-192)
T-3) Tennessee State – 4 (T-191, T-251)
T-3) Eastern Illinois – 4 (T-191, T-233)
7) Southeast Missouri State – 2 (T-226, T-210)
T-8) Jacksonville State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-8) Morehead State – 0 (T-273, T-258)
T-8) Tennessee Tech – 0 (T-273, T-192)
T-8) Tennessee Martin – 0 (T-273, T-258)

Although the Ohio Valley Conference is the first with an average point total over ten, it is extremely top heavy. Almost all of the points come from Murray State and Austin Peay.

Murray State has made the tournament eleven times since 1985, notching a win in 1988 as a No. 14 seed over No. 3-seeded NC State. They have had several other very successful years and received many better seeds. They were actually tied for 30^th place in the ESPN Prestige Rankings, which again illustrates the major flaw in their rankings.

Austin Peay has only made the NCAA tournament four times in the last 24 years, but they have a high point total from their win in 1987. They defeated No. 3-seeded Illinois as a No. 14 seed.

While all of the tournament wins for the Ohio Valley Conference came in a two-year span, the conference has had several very good teams throughout the years. The serious lack of depth keeps this from being a more prestigious conference.

22) Big West – Average Score: 13.33

1) Pacific – 72 (T-102, 101)
2) UC Santa Barbara – 38 (T-142, T-138)
3) Long Beach State – 6 (T-175, T-181)
T-4) Cal State Fullerton – 2 (T-226, T-221)
T-4) Cal State Northridge – 2 (T-226, T-225)
T-6) California Polytechnic– 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) UC Davis – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) UC Irvine – 0 (T-273, T-221)
T-6) UC Riverside – 0 (T-273, T-DNQ)

Like the Ohio Valley, this is another top heavy conference. UC Santa Barbara does have a tournament win, but Pacific is really the pride of the Big West.

Pacific has two tournament wins, both coming in back-to-back seasons. They defeated No. 5 seeded Providence as a No. 12 seed in 2004, and then beat No. 9-seeded Pittsburgh as a No. 8 seed in 2005. Despite no tournament appearances before 1997, the two tournament wins easily puts Pacific atop the Big West.

The ESPN rankings and my rankings agree very closely with all the teams in this conference. UC Irvine had a few good seasons with losses in the conference tournament, and so they are rated a little higher in the ESPN rankings.

While the Big West may not turn out serious upset threats every year, low seeds usually don’t get easy blowouts when they play the representative from this conference in the first round.

Top 50 Teams:

40) St. John’s Red Storm – Total Points: 356

1 Final Four Appearance, 2 Elite Eight Appearances, 12 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-35

Despite not having won a tournament game since 2000, St. John’s success between 1985 and the beginning of the 21^st Century is enough to put the Red Storm among college basketball’s most elite programs.

St. John’s made the Final Four as a No. 1 seed in 1985 and had Elite Eight appearances in 1991 and 1999. While they have only moved past the second round of the tournament three times in the time frame, St. John’s has won 2/3 of its first round games.

There is no end in sight to the St. John’s drop-off in tournament success. The Big East is arguably the strongest conference every season since the most recent realignments, and St. John’s has struggled to qualify for the conference tournament the last few years.

39) North Carolina State Wolfpack– Total Points: 358

2 Elite Eight Appearances, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 52

NC State overcame a ten year drought from 1992 to 2001 easily by making the NCAA tournament in all but three of the other seasons and only losing three first round games.

As a basketball program, NC State is usually remembered for their improbably NCAA Championship in 1983 as a No. 6 seed. Unfortunately, this was before the 1985 cut-off, so they get no credit for that championship.

The Wolfpack’s two Elite Eight appearances also came in the mid 1980’s, but they have been a tough out in the NCAA tournament several recent years as well. They made the Sweet Sixteen in 2005 as a No. 10 seed after upsetting No. 2-seeded Connecticut.

T-37) Boston College Eagles – Total Points: 364

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 14 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-70

The highlighted tournament finishes for Boston College does not appear as impressive as a lot of other teams inside the top 50. However, what is very impressive is that Boston College has only lost one first round game in the past 24 seasons.

A loss to No. 6-seeded Texas as a No. 11 seed in the 2002 tournament is the only first round blemish for the Eagles. Since most of the teams by far are eliminated in the first round of the tournament, the biggest point jump is gained by winning the first round game. This is why the Eagles are so high in the rankings.

In 2008, Boston College missed the NCAA tournament for only the second time in the past eight years. The Eagles still have a lot of talent, but as a program they may be starting to feel the effects of moving to a conference dominated by North Carolina and Duke every year.

T-37) Wisconsin Badgers – Total Points: 364

1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 12 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-43

For the first nine year of this 24 year time period, Wisconsin did not qualify for a single NCAA tournament. Since then they have only missed three tournaments; the Badgers have not been left out of the tournament since 1998.

The recent success of Wisconsin can best be seen in that they finished tied for 8^th place in the 2000-2008 Rankings. The highlight for the team was making the Final Four as a No. 8 seed in 2000. There they lost to conference foe and eventual champion Michigan State.

T-35) Seton Hall Pirates – Total Points: 378

1 Championship Game Appearance, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 14 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 51

I would first like to apologize to any Seton Hall fans for including them in this post and putting the team they are tied with in the next post. I chose to put the Pirates here because they have missed more tournaments.

Seton Hall is the first team so far to have made an NCAA tournament championship game. As a No. 3 seed they lost the 1989 National Championship game to No. 3-seeded Michigan by one point.

Seton Hall is past its prime as an elite basketball program. They achieved the vast majority of their tournament success in this time from 1987 to 1993, when they were among the nation’s top teams. They have only made the tournament three times since 1995.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part II

2008-09-05T12:03:00.000-07:00

This is the second part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 25-27, and all of the teams rated No. 41-45.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

27) America East – Average Point Total: 5.78

1) Vermont – 38 (T-142, 159)
2) Boston University – 8 (T-163, 108)
3) Albany – 4 (T-191, DNQ)
4) UMBC – 2 (T-226, T-256)
T-5) Hartford – 0 (T-273, 270)
T-5) Binghamton – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-5) New Hampshire – 0 (T-273, 297)
T-5) Stony Brook – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-5) Maine – 0 (T-273, T-278)

The high moment for the America East conference was No. 13 seeded Vermont’s victory over No. 4 seeded Syracuse in the 2005 NCAA Tournament. The conference has also had several upset scares recently. The same Vermont team played No. 2 seeded Connecticut to a very close game the year before their big upset and Albany gave No. 1 seeded the biggest scare any No. 16 seed has provided in recent memory in 2006.

Boston University, whose four tournament appearances are spread out over the 24-year time period, is rated inexplicably high in the ESPN rankings. Also, it is easy to see that the bottom five teams in this conference that have never qualified for the NCAA tournament make it impossible for America East to climb very high in the conference standings.

26) SWAC – Average Point Total: 7.50

1) Southern – 44 (T-126, 98)
2) Mississippi Valley State – 8 (T-163, T-141)
3) Texas Southern – 7 (174, 167)
4) Jackson State – 6 (T-175, T-177)
T-5) Alabama State – 4 (T-191, T-203)
T-5) Alcorn State – 3 (225, T-201)
7) Prarie View A&M – 2 (T-226, T-292)
8) Alabama A&M – 1 (272, DNQ)
T-9) Arkansas Pine Bluff – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-9) Grambling State – 0 (T-273, T-271)

The lone first round victory for the SWAC came in 1993 when No. 13 seeded Southern soundly defeated No. 4 seeded Georgia Tech. Southern University also qualified for the NCAA tournament five other times since 1985 to easily capture the top spot in this conference.

Texas Southern and Alabama A&M have both fallen victim to the NCAA play-in game in recent years, losing before qualifying for the first round. Even though these teams have lost, after analyzing some of the other conferences it certainly seems like there are teams from even less prestigious conferences that could be placed into the play-in game instead of these teams.

25) Big South – Average Score: 7.63

1) Winthrop – 47 (123, 79)
T-2) Liberty – 4 (T-191, T-203)
T-2) Coastal Carolina – 4 (T-191, T-196)
T-4) UNC Asheville – 2 (T-226, T-183)
T-4) Radford – 2 (T-226, T-168)
T-4) Charleston Southern – 2 (T-226, T-241)
T-7) High Point – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-7) VMI – 0 (T-273, T-294)

The recent success of the Winthrop basketball program is what gives this conference all of its rating. The rest of the conference is traditionally very weak.

Winthrop burst on to the scene of college basketball by easily handling No. 6 seeded Notre Dame in the 2007 tournament as a No. 11 seed. This win was on the heels of a last second loss to No. 2 seeded Tennessee in the 2006 tournament on a last second fade-away three-pointer by Chris Lofton. Winthrop has represented the Big South conference in the NCAA tournament in eight of the last ten seasons.

Top 50 Teams:

45) Iowa State Cyclones – Total Points: 304

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 12 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-57

Iowa State as a basketball program never really recovered after a devastating loss as a No. 2 seed in the first round of the 2001 NCAA tournament to No. 15 seeded Hampton. From 1985-2001, Iowa State qualified for 11 of 17 NCAA tournaments. They have only appeared in the eight years since.

The Cyclones’ lone Elite Eight appearance came in 2000 when they lost to eventual champion Michigan State as a No. 2 seed.

44) Auburn Tigers – Total Points: 310

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 17 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-90

No team has made the most of their NCAA tournament appearances better than Auburn. The Tigers have more missed tournaments than any other team inside the Top 50, but they have also never lost a first round game. If not for tournament droughts from 1989 to 1998 and again from 2004 to the present, Auburn could be much higher in the rankings.

43) LSU Tigers – Total Points: 314

2 Final Four Appearances, 1 Elite Eight Appearance, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 11 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-40

LSU is the lowest rated team with more than one Final Four appearance in the rankings. Seven first round exits are what moves the Tigers lower down in the rankings.

LSU made the 1986 Final Four as a No. 11 seed, which was the highest seed to do so until George Mason tied the record in 2006. Ironically, this was the other year that LSU made the Final Four.

42) Missouri Tigers – Total Points: 316

2 Elite Eight Appearances, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 10 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-37

Missouri tops the preceding two Tigers in the rankings because of their consistency. They have been involved in 14 of the last 24 NCAA tournaments.

Their seven first round losses are compensated for by Elite Eight appearances in 1994 and 2002. Missouri has not qualified for the tournament since 2003.

41) Gonzaga Bulldogs – Total Points: 318

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 26

Ever since their miracle run to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed in 1999, the Zags have firmly established themselves as the best mid-major team in the country.

Gonzaga had only one tournament appearance prior to 1999 (a first round loss in 1995), but they have easily qualified for the tournament every year since 1999.

In several recent years, the Bulldogs have been popular Final Four picks, but have still yet to reach that threshold. Gonzaga actually ranked 15^th when I ranked the teams only back to the year 2000.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Part I

2008-09-04T12:06:00.000-07:00

This is the first part in my series of Prestige Rankings for NCAA Basketball over the past 24 years. My rankings are a more accurate and simplistic approach to the Prestige Rankings released by ESPN several weeks ago.

Here I will unveil all of the teams in conferences rated No. 28-32, and all of the teams rated No. 46-50.

Conferences: (Conference Rank, Team, Points, Overall Rank, ESPN’s Overall Rank)

32) Independents – Average Point Total: 0

T-1) Cal State Bakersfield – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) Chicago State – 0 (T-273, 296)
T-1) Longwood – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) N.J.I.T. – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) North Carolina Central – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) Savannah State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) Texas-Pan American – 0 (T-273, T-268)
T-1) Presbyterian – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) Utah Valley State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-1) Winston Salem – 0 (T-273, DNQ)

No team that is currently independent of a conference has made the NCAA tournament since 1985. That means all of these teams are part of the 68-team tie for last place. Only two of these teams have actually been around for the entire period, as most did not qualify for the ESPN Rankings.

31) Summit Conference – Average Point Total: 1.20

1) Oral Roberts – 6 (T-175, T-124)
T-2) Oakland – 2 (T-226, DNQ)
T-2) IUPUI – 2 (T-226, DNQ)
T-2) Southern Utah – 2 (T-226, T-210)
T-5) Centenary – 0 (T-273, T-268)
T-5) IPFW – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-5) North Dakota State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-5) South Dakota State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-5) UMKC – 0 (T-273, T-241)
T-5) Western Illinois – 0 (T-273, T-276)

The Summit Conference is what remains of the old Mid-Continent Conference. With the loss of Valparaiso and the addition of several teams new to Division 1, the conference is rated last of all the actual conferences.

No team has actually won a game in the NCAA tournament since 1985. Oral Roberts has dominated the conference for the last three years, but has been blown out in all three NCAA tournament games.

30) Northeast Conference – Average Score: 3.64

T-1) Monmouth – 8 (T-163, T-134)
T-1) Farleigh Dickinson – 8 (T-163, T-115)
T-3) Central Connecticut State – 6 (T-175, T-189)
T-3) Mount Saint Mary’s – 6 (T-175, T-206)
T-3) Robert Morris – 6 (T-175, T-175)
T-6) Wagner – 2 (T-226, T-247)
T-6) Long Island – 2 (T-226, T-260)
T-6) Saint Francis (NY) – 2 (T-226, T-260)
T-9) Quinnipiac – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-9) Sacred Heart – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-9) Saint Francis (PA) – 0 (T-273, T-276)

The Northeast Conference consistently supplies the NCAA tournament with No. 16 seeds and had not had a first round tournament win to date.

The discrepancy between the ranking systems can be seen clearly with Monmouth and Farleigh Dickinson. ESPN gives these teams credit for beating up on their conference foes, which are clearly among the weakest in Division 1. None of these teams have had tournament success to speak of.

29) Atlantic Sun Conference – Average Score: 4.67

1) East Tennessee State – 44 (T-126, T-82)
2) Belmont – 6 (T-175, DNQ)
T-3) Campbell – 2 (T-226, 281)
T-3) Jacksonville – 2 (T-226, T-251)
T-3) Mercer – 2 (T-226, T-253)
T-6) North Florida – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) Kennesaw State – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) Stetson – 0 (T-273, 288)
T-6) Lipscomb – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) Gardner Webb – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) Florida Gulf Coast – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-6) USC Upstate – 0 (T-273, DNQ)

The Atlantic Sun Conference is home to more new teams than even the Summit Conference, but the success of East Tennessee State moves this conference up a few spots in the rankings.

East Tennessee State defeated No. 3 seeded Arizona in the first round of the 1992 NCAA Tournament as a No. 14 seed. No other team from this conference has won a first round tournament match-up, although Belmont came very close to defeating No. 2 seeded Duke this past year.

28) Southland Conference – Average Score: 5.33

1) Northwestern State – 36 (T-149, T-214)
2) Texas-San Antonio – 6 (T-175, T-157)
T-3) Nicholls State – 4 (T-191, T-241)
T-3) Texas State – 4 (T-191, T-241)
T-3) McNeese State – 4 (T-191, T-185)
T-6) Texas-Arlington – 2 (T-226, T-260)
T-6) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi – 2 (T-226, DNQ)
T-6) Southeastern Louisiana – 2 (T-226, T-237)
T-6) Sam Houston State – 2 (T-226, T-201)
T-6) Lamar – 2 (T-226, T-221)
T-11) Central Arkansas – 0 (T-273, DNQ)
T-11) Stephen F. Austin – 0 (T-273, T-214)

Similar to the Atlantic Sun Conference, the Southland Conferences’ average score mainly comes from the success of Northwestern State. No. 14 seeded Northwestern State defeated No. 3 seeded Iowa in the first round of the 2006 NCAA Tournament.

No other teams in the conference have won their first-round games, but most of the teams in the conference do have at least one NCAA tournament appearance.

Top 50 Teams:

50) West Virginia Mountaineers – Total Points: 248

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 3 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 16 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 67

West Virginia has really only come on as an elite basketball program in the last couple of years. They have made the Sweet Sixteen in three of the past four seasons, with an Elite Eight appearance in 2005. From 1993-2004 the Mountaineers made the tournament only once.

49) Mississippi State Bulldogs – Total Points: 252

1 Final Four Appearance, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearance, 16 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-86

Mississippi State achieved the bulk of the success by making the Sweet Sixteen in 1995 and then the Final Four in 1996. However, they also won all but two of their first round games, which is what put them ahead of West Virginia.

T-47) Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Total Points: 278

2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-86

The Irish have participated in the tournament just under half of the years, but have never made it past the round of sixteen. They failed to qualify for the tournament for ten years in a row from 1991-2000, which hurt their chances to be higher in the rankings greatly. Notre Dame has advanced the first round in eight of their eleven appearances, putting them among the top 50 teams.

T-47) Virginia Cavaliers – Total Points: 278

2 Elite Eight Appearances, 1 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: T-70

Virginia’s win over Albany in the 2007 tournament was the Cavalier’s first tournament victory since the 1995 season, when they made the Elite Eight. Most of Virginia’s success was sandwiched between their two Elite Eight appearances in 1989 and 1995.

Five first round losses and very little recent success keeps UVA at the bottom of the top 50.

46) Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Total Points: 302

1 Elite Eight Appearance, 2 Sweet Sixteen Appearances, 13 Missed Tournaments
ESPN Rank: 39

Out of all of the top 50 teams, Tulsa is from the lowest rated conference (WAC is the 13^th rated conference).

Almost all of Tulsa’s success came between 1993 and 2004, and they have not been back to the tournament since. Their high rating can be attributed to the fact that they have made it to at least the second round seven times in the 24-year time frame.

The Real Prestige Rankings: Introduction and Outline

2008-09-03T14:35:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago ESPN released “Prestige Rankings” for NCAA College Basketball teams from 1985 through 2008. As ESPN states, 1985 was the first year the NCAA tournament had 64 teams. After reading through their methodology and scoring system, I have come up with my own rankings for the same time period.

These rankings are solely mathematical and based off of teams’ success in the March Madness tournament rather than arbitrary criteria and point assignments.

After reading through ESPN’s rankings, the main visible flaw I found was that teams from smaller conferences were receiving much more credit than they deserved. This is because of the emphasis on regular season wins. Teams in weaker conferences play much weaker teams; it is much easier for them to accumulate high win totals.

In addition, there is no mathematical explanation for any of the point totals that ESPN assigns. I encourage you to read through their scoring system and you will see what I mean.

In contrast, teams receive points in my rankings purely from their finish in each year’s NCAA tournament.

The scores that I give the teams for each year is essentially their rank based on what round of tournament play they were eliminated in. For example, the champion is ranked No. 1 and the play-in game loser is ranked No. 65.

However, since I was assigning no score to teams that did not qualify for the tournament, I made higher scores more valuable. I inverted the rankings; the champion receives a score of 65 and the play-in game loser receives a score of one.

Also, everyone losing in the same round receives the same score. There is no discrepancy based on seed. Here is the detailed scoring breakdown:

Champion: 65 points

Runner-Up: 64 points

Lose in Final Four: 62 points

Lose in Elite Eight: 58 points

Lose in Sweet Sixteen: 50 points

Lose in Second Round: 34 points

Lose in First Round: 2 points

Lose in Play-In game: 1 point

Fail to Qualify for NCAA tournament: 0 points

While my approach is much simpler than ESPN because it only accounts for post-season success, I argue that it is supremely accurate.

While ESPN tries to reward and penalize teams for many different criteria, it is ultimately impossible to score all aspects of a team’s prestige. In total the differences for missed or incorrectly scored criteria may be small, but for certain teams or groups of teams the discrepancies could be very meaningful.

In addition, the system I use really encompasses all of the important factors. For example, you may think that a No. 1 seed defeating a No. 16 seed should receive fewer points than a No. 12 seed upsetting a No. 5 seed.

However, the No. 1 seeded teams have earned the right to have an easier first round match-up with their regular season success. The regular season success and match-up difficulty for teams are both taken into account already with the setup of the tournament so it would be repetitive for the Prestige Rankings to score for this as well.

It’s also important to note for smaller conferences teams that even though a first round win or even just qualifying for the tournament receives a relatively small amount of points, that it still is significant when compared to their peer group of teams (other small conference teams), who would all get zero points for not making the tournament.

As of 2008, there are 341 Men’s Division 1 Basketball teams that compete for the right to play in the NCAA tournament. 272 of these teams have made the NCAA tournament at least once since 1985. For this reason, I will be breaking up the rankings into eleven different posts (not including this one).

Because there are so many teams that are clearly nowhere near the prestige of the top programs, I will show the rankings within all of the 32 conferences (including the independents as their own conference). This allows comparisons for the prestige of all of the conferences, similar to ESPN’s rankings. Each conference is also rated based on the average point total of all its current members.

For overall prestige, I will also show the top 50 teams with details of their tournament successes throughout the past 24 years.

Here is the outline of posts to come (Part 1 will be the next post):

Part 1: Conferences 28-32, Overall Teams 46-50

Part 2: Conferences 25-27, Overall Teams 41-45

Part 3: Conferences 22-24, Overall Teams 36-40

Part 4: Conferences 19-21, Overall Teams 31-35

Part 5: Conferences 16-18, Overall Teams 26-30

Part 6: Conferences 13-15, Overall Teams 21-25

Part 7: Conferences 10-12, Overall Teams 16-20

Part 8: Conferences 7-9, Overall Teams 11-15

Part 9: Conferences 4-6, Overall Teams 6-10

Part 10: Conferences 1-3, Overall Teams 1-5

Part 11: Summary Rankings: Top 50 Teams, 32 Conferences

Finally, all of my posts will show not only the ranking for each team from my scoring system, but also from ESPN’s rankings. This should make comparisons of the two rankings easier.

It is important to remember that while there are currently 341 teams, 40 of these teams have not been in Division 1 every year since 1985. ESPN does not count these teams, but I do. All years not in Division 1 simply count as years failing to qualify for the tournament.

I see no reason not to allow these teams to accumulate prestige once they become Division 1. The reader can pick out these teams because they will have a DNQ (did not qualify) for their ESPN ranking.

Please also refer to my previous article for Prestige Rankings dating back only to 2000 rather than 1985. More recent rankings may prove to make more sense for younger readers. It also contains more description of the scoring system.

I would also like to note that the scoring system essentially rates all teams failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament as tied for 66^th place (just outside of the tournament field). I was concerned that this may not provide enough penalty to teams not making the tournament, but have since convinced myself that it is an adequate assumption. Since I have no ranking criteria outside of the NCAA tournament, it is impossible to distinguish these teams that do not participate. I have, however, included the number of tournaments missed for all Top 50 teams so the reader may judge for themselves if the scoring system accurately accounts for teams outside of the tournament.

The Real Prestige Rankings: 2000-2008

2008-09-02T15:18:00.000-07:00

For those who may not know, last month ESPN released “Prestige Rankings” for NCAA College Basketball teams from 1985 to the present. After reading through their methodology and scoring system, I decided to come up with my own rankings that I believe are more indicative of a team’s prestige.

For starters, I am working on making the rankings go back to 1985, but for now I have only done back to 2000. So these will be rankings for this decade only. I like the idea of having more recent rankings though, because many programs do change significantly over an extended period of time.

Now for the scoring system; I decided to only base my rankings off of success in the NCAA tournament. This is because I believe that is the ultimate goal for every Division I college basketball team, and since it includes all divisions, the tournament really encompasses everyone.

The scores that I give the teams for each year is essentially just their rank for how they finished in the tournament. For example, the champion is ranked No. 1 and the play-in game loser is ranked No. 65.

However, since I was assigning no score to teams that did not qualify for the tournament, I needed to make higher scores more valuable. So I inverted the rankings; the champion receives a score of 65 and the play-in game loser receives a score of one.

Also, everyone losing in the same round receives the same score. There is no discrepancy based on seed. Here is the detailed scoring breakdown:

Champion: 65 points

Runner-Up: 64 points

Lose in Final Four: 62 points

Lose in Elite Eight: 58 points

Lose in Sweet Sixteen: 50 points

Lose in Second Round: 34 points

Lose in First Round: 2 points

Lose in Play-In game: 1 point

Now to the rankings; here I have included the team and total score for all years since 2000. I am only showing the top 50 programs, which coincidentally is everyone scoring over 100 points (which is, on average, losing in the first or second round every year).

Rank	Team	Points
1	Duke	413
2	Kansas	395
3	Kentucky	354
4	Texas	350
5	North Carolina	349
6	UCLA	340
7	Michigan St.	337
T-8	Illinois	326
T-8	Wisconsin	326
10	Arizona	304
11	UConn	301
12	Florida	300
13	Maryland	279
14	Pittsburgh	270
15	Gonzaga	258
16	Stanford	248
17	Oklahoma	226
18	Xavier	222
19	Memphis	216
20	Oklahoma St.	208
21	Syracuse	203
22	Georgetown	196
23	Louisville	192
T-24	Boston College	188
T-24	Cincinnati	188
26	Tennessee	186
27	Indiana	172
28	Butler	170
29	Ohio State	168
T-30	Villanova	160
T-30	Purdue	160
32	West Virginia	158
T-33	NC State	154
T-33	Wake Forest	154
T-33	Notre Dame	154
36	Southern Illinois	140
37	Miss. St.	138
38	Alabama	130
39	Missouri	128
40	Tulsa	126
T-41	Oregon	122
T-41	Utah	122
43	Nevada	120
44	Texas A&M	118
45	LSU	116
46	USC	112
T-47	Washington	102
T-47	Vanderbilt	102
T-47	Marquette	102
T-47	Georgia Tech	102

For the decade, Duke is the top ranked team. This is consistent with ESPN’s rankings, even though they go back fifteen more years.

There were 198 teams that had a score (made the tournament at least one year). For comparison, there are currently 341 teams in Division 1.

I plan to post the rankings going back to 1985 shortly, and then I will make comparisons to the rankings ESPN got.

For readers to lazy to click the link at the top of the page, ESPN’s rankings take a lot more into account than just tournament success. One thing I noticed just by reading the rankings was that teams from smaller conferences seemed to be getting more credit than they should have because they had seasons with large win totals. I will go into this issue more in future articles.

I also will analyze the scores by conference and find the top teams in each conference as well as the top conferences. I was planning on saving this analysis for the rankings back to 1985, but can easily analyze these more current rankings as well if there is interest.

Also, please let me know if there are certain teams you are interested in to a more detailed extent, or teams you are interested in that may have fallen outside of this list.